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Dąbrowski Marek A. (Kolegium Ekonomii, Finansów i Prawa)
Zarys ewolucji koncepcji kursu walutowego równowagi
The Evolution of the Equilibrium Exchange Rate Concept
Zeszyty Naukowe / Uniwersytet Ekonomiczny w Krakowie, 2007, nr 758, s. 5-22, bibliogr. 29 poz.
Słowa kluczowe
Teoria ekonomii, Kurs walutowy, Teoria kursu walutowego, Przegląd literatury
Economic theory, Exchange rates, Exchange rate theory, Literature review
Ukazano z perspektywy historycznej trzy tradycje badawcze, które wykształciły się w czasie prac nad kursem równowagi. Pierwsza bazuje na teorii parytetu siły nabywczej, druga na równowadze makroekonomicznej (fundamentalnej), a trzecia na równowadze behawioralnej.

The aim of this article is to present the equilibrium exchange rate concept in a historical perspective. The evolution of this concept is divided into five time periods delineated by: the end of World War I, the end of World War II (and the ensuing need to bring order to international financial relations), the crisis of the inter-war years, the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, and currency integration processes (in the 1990s). The author contends that economic theory contains three parallel but different concepts of the equilibrium exchange rate and each of these has formed the basis for a separate research tradition. The first tradition is based on the purchasing power parity theory, the second on macroeconomic (fundamental) equilibrium, and the third on behavioural equilibrium. Estimates of the equilibrium exchange rate based on the purchasing power parity theory, although frequently criticised using arguments questioning the theory's validity, remain a kind of point of reference in various types of analyses whose authors attempt to distinguish their own approaches and results or support their own calculations with an additional argument (insofar as they are to the certain degree consistent with the implications of the purchasing power parity theory). Cassel has been recognised as the precursor of this tradition. The key criterion for determining the equilibrium exchange rate is - according to the second research tradition initiated by Keynes - the correspondence of a given exchange rate with macroeconomic equilibrium, perceived much more broadly than the condition of price equalisation domestically and abroad (no possibility for goods arbitrage). It was established that the third research tradition, identified by Artus, originates from studies dedicated to explaining exchange rate fluctuations. Based on this tradition, no equilibrium conditions are adopted a priori, but a model is sought to explain exchange rate fluctuations. The equilibrium exchange rate is determined by correcting the variables that determine the exchange rate such that the values only take into account lasting changes in these variables.(original abstract)
Dostępne w
Biblioteka Główna Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego w Krakowie
Biblioteka Szkoły Głównej Handlowej w Warszawie
Biblioteka Główna Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego w Katowicach
Biblioteka Główna Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego w Poznaniu
Biblioteka Główna Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego we Wrocławiu
Pełny tekst
  1. Artus J.R. [1978], Methods of Assessing the Long-Run Equilibrium Value of an Exchange Rate, "Journal of International Economics", t. 8, nr 2.
  2. Bloomfield A.I. [1947], The Foreign Exchange Rate Theory and Policy [w:] The New Economics, red. S.E. Harris, Alfred A. Knopf, New York.
  3. Boughton J.M. [2001], Silent Revolution: The International Monetary Fund 1979-1989, International Monetary Fund, Washington D.C.
  4. Cassel G. [1916], The Present Situation of the Foreign Exchanges, "The Economic Journal", March, September.
  5. Cassel G. [1918], Abnormal Deviation of International Exchanges, "The Economic Journal", December.
  6. Cassel G. [1922], Money and Foreign Exchange after 1914, Macmillan, New York.
  7. Clark P.B., MacDonald R. [1998], Exchange Rates and Economic Fundamentals: A Methodological Comparison of BEERs and FEERs, "IMF Working Paper", nr 98/67 (May).
  8. Dąbrowski M.A. [2005], Zastosowanie modeli kursu równowagi w perspektywie przystąpienia Polski do Unii Gospodarczej i Walutowej, praca niepublikowana, rozprawa doktorska, Akademia Ekonomiczna w Krakowie, Kraków.
  9. EBC [2003], Policy Position of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank on Exchange Rate Issues Relating to the Acceding Countries, European Central Bank, Frankfurt,, maj 2005.
  10. Eichengreen B.J. [1998], Globalizing Capital. A History of International Monetary System, Princeton University Press, Princeton.
  11. Ellis H.S. [1936], The Equilibrium Rate of Exchange [w:] Explorations in Economics. Notes and Essays Contributed in Honor of F.W. Taussig, McGraw-Hill, New York - London.
  12. Exchange Rate Assessment: Extensions of the Macroeconomic Balance Approach [1998] red. P. Isard, H. Faruqee, "IMF Occasional Paper", nr 167.
  13. Haberler G. [1944], Currency Depreciation and the International Monetary Fund, "The Review of Economic and Statistics", t. 26 (November).
  14. Jonas J. [2004], Euro Adoption and Maastricht Criteria: Rules or Discretion?, "Working Paper" B 14, Zentrum für Europäische Integrationsforschung,, maj 2005.
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  18. MFW [1970], The Role of Exchange Rates in the Adjustment of International Payments: A Report by Executive Directors, International Monetary Fund, Washington D.C.
  19. NBP [2003], Strategia polityki pieniężnej po 2003 roku, Narodowy Bank Polski - Rada Polityki Pieniężnej,, listopad 2005.
  20. Nurkse R. [1944], International Currency Experience: Lessons of the Inter-War Period, League of Nations, Columbia University Press, Geneva.
  21. Nurkse R. [1945], Conditions of International Monetary Equilibrium, "Essays in International Finance", nr4, International Finance Section, Princeton University; przedruk w: Readings in the Theory of International Trade, red. H.S. Ellis i L.A. Metzler, Blakiston, Philadelphia-Toronto 1950.
  22. Officer L.H. [1982], Purchasing Power Parity and Exchange Rates: Theory, Evidence and Relevance, JAI Press Inc., Greenwich, Connecticut - London.
  23. Polak J.J. [1995], Fifty Years of Exchange Rate Research and Policy at the International Monetary Fund, "IMF Staff Papers", t. 42, nr 4.
  24. Rogoff K. [1996], The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle, "Journal of Economic Literatu re", t. XXXIV.
  25. Scammell W.M. [1961], International Monetary Policy, Macmillan, London.
  26. Solbes P. [2003], Exchange Rate Policies and EMU Participation of Accession Countries, odczyt wygłoszony na konferencji pt. "Monetary Strategies for Accession Countries", Budapeszt 27-28 lutego 2003.
  27. Stern R.M. [1973], The Balance of Payments: Theory and Economic Policy, Aldine, Chicago.
  28. The Robustness of Equilibrium Exchange Rate Calculations to Alternative Assumptions and Methodologies [1994], T. Bayoumi, P. Clark, S. Symansky, M. Taylor [w:] Estimating Equilibrium Exchange Rate, red. J. Williamson, Institute for International Economics, Washington DC.
  29. Williamson J. [1985], The Exchange Rate System, "Policy Analyses in International Economics", nr 5, Institute for International Economics, Washington.
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