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Author
Sobański Konrad
Title
Deficyty rachunku obrotów bieżących w wybranych krajach europejskich w latach 1995-2004 - porównawcza analiza stabilności
Comparative analysis of the sustainability of current account deficits in selected European countries (1995-2004)
Source
Bank i Kredyt, 2006, nr 4, s. 30-40, bibliogr. 25 poz.
Keyword
Deficyt w handlu zagranicznym, Kapitał zagraniczny, Atrakcyjność inwestycyjna, Analiza porównawcza
Foreign trade deficit, Foreign capital, Investing attractiveness, Comparative analysis
Note
summ.
Country
Europa Środkowo-Wschodnia, Polska, Czechy, Węgry, Grecja, Hiszpania, Portugalia
Central and Eastern Europe, Poland, Czech Republic, Hungary, Greece, Spain, Portugal
Abstract
W opracowaniu przedstawiono analizę porównawczą wskaźników stabilności deficytu na rachunku obrotów bieżących w latach 1995-2004 w trzech krajach Europy Środkowo-Wschodniej: Polsce, Czechach i na Węgrzech (CEE), oraz w trzech krajach dawnej "piętnastki" UE: Grecji, Portugalii i Hiszpanii (SWE). Omówiono następujące zagadnienia: deficyt na rachunku obrotów bieżących a zmiany międzynarodowej pozycji inwestycyjnej netto; sposoby oceny stabilności deficytu na rachunku obrotów bieżących; czynniki określające prawdopodobieństwo wystąpienia kryzysów walutowych i korekt na rachunku obrotów bieżących - przegląd literatury empirycznej; operacyjne wskaźniki stabilności deficytu na rachunku obrotów bieżących krajów CEE i SWE - analiza porównawcza. Na zakończenie zawarto uwagi dotyczące kształtowania się salda rachunku obrotów bieżących krajów CEE i oceny jego bezpieczeństwa w przyszłości, sformułowane na podstawie doświadczeń krajów SWE.

The paper presents a comparative analysis of the sustainability of current account deficits in selected Central and Eastern European countries (Poland, the Czech Republic, Hungary) as well as Southern and Western European countries (Portugal, Spain, Greece) in the period 1995-2004. The author verifies the sustainability of high current account deficits based on the observation of selected macroeconomic variables such as investment and saving rate, structure of capital inflows, openness ratio, reserve assets. The main finding of the investigation is that the sustainability of negative current balances as measured by operational indicators seems to have been lower in SWE than in CEE countries. The author claims that this might prove that foreign investors are willing to accept such low levels of sustainability indicators in more developed countries and that would pose a threat of reversals in less developed countries. Based on the experience of SWE countries the author suggests that deficits prevailing in Poland, the Czech Republic and Hungary will be more sustainable as the convergence process advances (and especially after EMU accession).(original abstract)
Accessibility
The Main Library of the Cracow University of Economics
The Library of Warsaw School of Economics
The Library of University of Economics in Katowice
The Main Library of Poznań University of Economics and Business
The Main Library of the Wroclaw University of Economics
Bibliography
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ISSN
0137-5520
Language
pol
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