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Author
Bouveret Antoine, Mestiri Sana, Sterdyniak Henri
Title
The Renminbi Equilibrium Exchange Rate: An Agnostic View
Kurs równowagi dla waluty chińskiej: zdanie odrębne
Source
Bank i Kredyt, 2007, nr 8-9, s. 25-41, bibliogr. 34 poz.
Keyword
Renminbi (RMB), Kurs walutowy, Polityka gospodarcza, Strategia rozwoju gospodarczego
Renminbi (RMB), Exchange rates, Economic policy, Economic development strategy
Note
summ., streszcz.
Country
Chiny
China
Abstract
Rzekome niedowartościowanie waluty chińskiej (renminbi) od kilku lat jest przedmiotem ożywionej działalności badawczej. Posługując się modelami kursu równowagi, liczni autorzy twierdzili, że waluta ta jest niedowartościowana od 15% do 30% w stosunku do dolara. Niemniej w Chinach od 10 lat obserwujemy silny wzrost gospodarczy i kraj ten nie wydaje się cierpieć z powodu postulowanego niedostosowania kursu jego waluty. Inflacja pozostaje przy tym niska i odnotowujemy nadwyżki na rachunku obrotów bieżących. W przeprowadzanych dotąd szacunkach przyjmuje się założenie pełnego zatrudnienia w gospodarce chińskiej, co jest daleko idącym postulatem, zważywszy że liczba bezrobotnych w Chinach wynosi 150 mln. W niniejszym artykule sformułowano tezę, że niski kurs waluty jest korzystny dla celów polityki gospodarczej Chin. Kurs walutowy może być niedoszacowany z punktu widzenia tradycyjnych modeli i być w równowadze z punktu widzenia celów polityki gospodarczej rządu, co pokazujemy na modelu teoretycznym. (abstrakt oryginalny)

The alleged undervaluation of the renminbi has been the subject of intensive academic research over the past few years. Using equilibrium exchange rate models many authors have concluded that the renminbi is undervalued by 15 to 30% against the US dollar. Yet China has been experiencing strong economic growth for a decade and does not seem to suffer from the supposed misalignment of its exchange rate, with low inflation rate and current account surpluses. The estimations assume that the economy is at full-employment, a strong hypothesis for China, where unemployment amounts to 150 million people. This article claims that a low exchange rate is suited for the objectives of Chinese economic policy. The exchange rate can be undervalued according to traditional models and in equilibrium compared to the government's policy objectives as shown by a theoretical model. (original abstract)
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ISSN
0137-5520
Language
eng
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