- Author
- Takács István, Felkai Beáta Olga
- Title
- Simulation Model Measuring Risk Changes and Its Economic Aspects as a Consequence of Flood Control Investments
Symulacyjny model do mierzenia ryzyka zmian i aspekty ekonomiczne jako konsekwencja inwestycji kontroli przeciwpowodziowej - Source
- Roczniki Naukowe Stowarzyszenia Ekonomistów Rolnictwa i Agrobiznesu, 2006, T. 8, z. 6, s. 137-141, tab., wykr., bibliogr. 3 poz.
- Keyword
- Katastrofa, System wczesnego ostrzegania, Metoda Monte Carlo, Analiza kosztów
Disaster, Early warning system, Monte Carlo method, Cost analysis - Note
- summ.
- Abstract
- W opracowaniu przedstawiono bardzo aktualny temat dotyczący budowy modelu analizy kasztów-zysków w zakresie zabezpieczenia się przed powodziami. Wykorzystano do tego celu metody symulacyjne Monte Carlo. (abstrakt oryginalny)
A special scope of economic analyses is constituted by the problems, where direct economic benefit can not be measured and economic utility can be justified by means of taking into account indirect benefits only. Such a special problem is also the question of the construction and maintenance of flood control investments. Floods are regularly inflicting significant losses on human life, damages on material and natural resources in several places of the world. In the course of the present research, a simulation model was used to investigate, that by which direct and indirect benefits should flood control investments (construction of earth-dikes, green coating of the dikes) be realized by conscious reduction of the flood risk. The basis for the model was composed of the cash flow, being applied in traditional investment-efficiency calculation and the net present value, calculated from it, as well as of the internal rate of return. Along with the stochastic occurrence of flood effects (covering duration, flood level), risk changing and the conditions of economical refund were investigated by means of the Monte Carlo simulation. (This paper was supported by the research project OTKA No. K 63231). (original abstract) - Accessibility
- The Main Library of the Cracow University of Economics
The Library of Warsaw School of Economics
The Main Library of Poznań University of Economics and Business - Bibliography
-
- Brealey M., Myers S.C. 1991: Principles of corporate finance. Fourth Edition. International edition. McGraw-Hill, Inc. 1175 p.
- Gittinger P.J. 1982: Economic analysis of agricultural projects. EDI series in Economic Development. Baltimore and London, 445 p.
- Szlávik L. 1999: Ideas on the current problems of flood defence in Hungary. Hidrológiai Közlöny, 79. évf. 4. 241-260 pp.
- Cited by
- ISSN
- 1508-3535
- Language
- eng
