BazEkon - The Main Library of the Cracow University of Economics

BazEkon home page

Main menu

Author
Brzoza-Brzezina Michał
Title
Korzyści z publikacji projekcji makroekonomicznych i ścieżki stóp procentowych w Polsce
Comparing the Benefits from Publishing Macroeconomic Projections and the Future Interest Rate Path in Poland
Source
Bank i Kredyt, 2008, nr 12, s. 3-14, bibliogr. 27 poz.; aneks
Keyword
Polityka pieniężna, Rola banku centralnego w gospodarce, Modele makroekonomiczne, Stopa procentowa
Monetary policy, Central bank's role in the economy, Macroeconomic models, Interest rate
Note
streszcz., summ.
Abstract
W opracowaniu porównane zostały korzyści z opublikowania projekcji makroekonomicznej i korzyści z dodatkowego opublikowania przyszłej ścieżki stóp procentowych przez bank centralny. Obliczenia oparte na neokeynesowskim modelu gospodarki polskiej przy założeniu pełnej wiedzy po stronie banku centralnego i procesu uczenia się (learning) po stronie podmiotów. W wykorzystanym modelu oba sposoby zwiększania stopnia przejrzystości wpływają na spadek wartości funkcji straty banku centralnego (uwzględniającej zmienność inflacji, luki popytowej i stóp procentowych). Korzyści z dodatkowego opublikowania ścieżki okazały się jednak znacznie mniejsze od korzyści z opublikowania projekcji. (abstrakt oryginalny)

We apply a New Keynesian, open economy model with learning to compare the benefits from the publication of macroeconomic projections and the future interest rate path in Poland. In this framework both sources of increased transparency generate net benefits, but the gains from showing a macro projection are substantially larger than those related to additionally publishing an interest rate path. (original abstract)
Accessibility
The Main Library of the Cracow University of Economics
The Library of Warsaw School of Economics
The Library of University of Economics in Katowice
The Main Library of Poznań University of Economics and Business
The Main Library of the Wroclaw University of Economics
Full text
Show
Bibliography
Show
  1. Blanchard O., Kahn C.M. (1980), The Solution of Linear Difference Models under Rational Expectations, "Econometrica", Vol. 48, s. 1305-1313.
  2. Brzoza-Brzezina M., Kot A. (2008), The Relativity Theory Revisited: Is Publishing Interest Rate Forecasts Really so Valuable?, "Working Paper", No. 52, NBP, Warszawa.
  3. Budnik K., Kolasa, M. Hulej M., Greszta M., Murawski K., Rot M., Tarnicka M., Rybaczyk B. (2008), NECMOD, maszynopis, NBP, Warszawa.
  4. Buncic D., Melcky M. (2008), An Estimated New Keynesian Policy Model for Australia, "Economic Record", Vol. 84, No. 264, s. 1-16.
  5. Cukierman A. (2000), Establishing a Reputation for Dependability by Means of Inflation Targets, w: L. Mahadeva, G. Sterne (red.), Monetary Frameworks in a Global Context, Routledge, London.
  6. Evans G.W., Honkapohja S. (2001), Learning and Expectations in Macroeconomics. Princeton University Press, Princeton.
  7. Evans, G.W., Honkapohja, S. (2007), Expectations, Learning and Monetary Policy: An Overview of Recent Research, "Research Discussion Paper", No. 32, Bank of Finland, Helsinki.
  8. Faust J., Leeper E.M. (2005), Forecasts and Inflation Reports: An Evaluation, materiał na konferencję "Inflation Targeting: Implementation, Communication and Effectiveness", Riksbank 11-12 lipca, Sztokholm.
  9. Ferrero G., Secchi A. (2007), The Announcement of Future Policy Intentions, materiał z konferencji "Third Conference on Money, Banking and Finance: Monetary Policy Design and Communication", Bank of Italy, 27-28 września, Rzym.
  10. Gali J. (2008), Monetary Policy, Inflation and the Business Cycle. An Introduction to the New Keynesian Framework, Princeton University Press, Princeton.
  11. Gersbach H. (2003), On the Negative Social Value of Central Bank's Knowledge Transparency, "Economics of Governance", s. 91-102.
  12. Goodhart C.A.E. (2001), Monetary Transmission Lags and the Formulation of the Policy Decision on Interest Rates, "Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review", July/August, s. 165-181.
  13. Gosselin P., Lotz A., Wyplosz C. (2008), The Expected Interest Rate Path: Alignment of Expectations vs. Creative Opacity, "International Journal of Central Banking", Vol. 4, No. 3, s. 145-185.
  14. Greene W.H. (2008), Econometric Analysis, Pearson, Prentice Hall.
  15. King M. (2007), The MPC Ten Years On, wykład dla Society of Business Economists, 2 maja, http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/speeches/2007/speech309.pdf.
  16. Monacelli T. (2005), Monetary Policy in a Low Pass-Through Environment, "Journal of Money, Credit and Banking", Vol. 37, No. 6, s. 1047-1066.
  17. Muto I. (2008), Monetary Policy and Learning from the Central Bank's Forecast, "Discussion Paper", No. 2008-E-1, Bank of Japan, Tokyo.
  18. Obstfeld M., Rogoff K.S. (2000), New directions for stochastic open economy models, Journal of International Economics, Vol. 50, No. 1, s. 117-153.
  19. Orphanides A., Williams J.C. (2007), Robust Monetary Policy with Imperfect Knowledge, "Working Paper", No. 764, ECB, Frankfurt.
  20. Przystupa J., Wróbel E. (2006), Looking for an Optimal Monetary Policy Rule: The Case of Poland under IT Framework, "Working Paper", No. 38, NBP, Warszawa.
  21. Rudebusch G.D. (2008), Publishing Central Bank Interest Rate Forecasts, "Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter", http://www.frbsf.org/publications/economics/letter/2008/el2008-02.pdf.
  22. Rudebusch G.D., Williams, J.C. (2006), Revealing the Secrets of the Temple: The Value of Publishing Central Bank Interest Rate Projections, "Working Paper", No. 2006-31, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  23. Sims C.A. (2002), Solving Linear Rational Expectations Models, "Computational Economics", Vol. 20, No. 1-2, s. 1-20.
  24. Tarkka J., Mayes D. (1999), The Value of Publishing Official Central Bank Forecasts, "Discussion Paper", No. 22/99, Bank of Finland, Helsinki.
  25. Taylor J.B. (1993), Discretion versus Policy Rules in Practice, "Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy", Vol. 39, December, s. 195-214.
  26. Weber A. (2007), How should central banks signal their intentions regarding future interest rates?, prezentacja na konferencji "The ECB and its watchers IX", Centre for Financial Studies, 7 września, Frankfurt.
  27. Woodford M. (2003), Interest and Prices, Princeton University Press, Princeton.
Cited by
Show
ISSN
0137-5520
Language
pol
Share on Facebook Share on Twitter Share on Google+ Share on Pinterest Share on LinkedIn Wyślij znajomemu