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Author
Pońsko Paweł (Narodowy Bank Polski; Szkoła Główna Handlowa w Warszawie)
Title
Konsumpcja, spowolnienie gospodarcze i awersja do strat
Consumption, Economic Slowdown and Loss Aversion
Source
Bank i Kredyt, 2010, nr 2, s. 71-86, wykr., bibliogr. 21 poz.
Keyword
Konsumpcja, Recesja gospodarcza, Straty gospodarcze, Awersja do strat, Spowolnienie gospodarcze
Consumption, Economic recession, Economic losses, Loss aversion, Economic slowdown
Note
streszcz., summ.
Abstract
Poniższy artykuł jest przeglądem obecnego stanu wiedzy na temat konsumpcji. W szczególności starano się w nim odpowiedzieć na pytanie, dlaczego mamy do czynienia z dodatnią dynamiką wydatków konsumpcyjnych w okresie obniżenia dochodów do dyspozycji, np. podczas spowolnienia gospodarczego. Artykuł zawiera krótki przegląd wybranych hipotez na ten temat. Hipoteza permanentnego dochodu, która w istocie tłumaczy małą wrażliwość konsumpcji na wysokość bieżących dochodów, niestety nie jest w stanie wyjaśnić obserwowanych wahań wydatków konsumpcyjnych. Hipotezy krótkowzroczności i ograniczeń płynności, mimo że lepiej tłumaczą kształtowanie się konsumpcji, nie dają zadowalającej odpowiedzi na nurtujące nas pytanie. W artykule zasugerowano, że najlepsze wytłumaczenie oferuje behawioralna hipoteza awersji do strat, której wadą są trudności ze zbudowaniem łatwego do wykorzystania modelu na poziomie makroekonomicznym. (abstrakt oryginalny)

This article is a review of recent developments in consumption theory. In particular, it attempts to find an answer why in the period of expected decrease in income, e.g. during economic slowdown, increasing consumption expenditures can be observed. Implications of several hypotheses are briefly discussed. The permanent income hypothesis suggests that consumption should be insensitive to temporary changes of income, unfortunately it does not explain the observed changes in consumer spending. Myopia and liquidity constraints fit the empirical data much better but fail to provide an answer why consumption should increase when income is expected to drop. In the article I suggest that the behavioral hypothesis of loss aversion is the best explanation of the decision process which leads to increase in consumption during recession. (original abstract)
Accessibility
The Main Library of the Cracow University of Economics
The Library of Warsaw School of Economics
The Library of University of Economics in Katowice
The Main Library of Poznań University of Economics and Business
The Main Library of the Wroclaw University of Economics
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Bibliography
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ISSN
0137-5520
Language
pol
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