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Author
Gajewski Paweł (Uniwersytet Łódzki)
Title
Nierównowaga finansów publicznych w krajach Unii Europejskiej
Public Finance Sustainability in European Union Countries
Source
Gospodarka Narodowa, 2011, nr 10, s. 21-38, rys.,tabl., bibliogr. 11 poz.;
The National Economy
Keyword
Dług publiczny, Finanse państwa, Stabilność finansowa, Kryzys finansowy
Public debt, State finance, Financial sustainability, Financial crisis
Note
summ.
Abstract
The article aims to estimate the current level of public finance sustainability in the European Union, taking into account the starting fiscal position, the possibility of withdrawing fiscal impulses, the future costs of population aging, and possible financial market responses. The author achieves this objective by using an indicator method similar to that used by the European Commission. However, this method has been modified by diversifying projected GDP growth rates and public debt interest rates, Gajewski says. The assumption is that the interest rate may vary depending on the response of financial markets to the debt-to-GDP ratio. The author demonstrates that almost all EU countries have lost their medium- and long-term fiscal sustainability. Greece and Ireland appear to be the worst off among the analyzed countries, Gajewski says. Both these economies suffer from a high structural budget deficit and potentially high costs of population aging. Most other countries will also be forced to make strong fiscal adjustments to achieve primary surpluses far exceeding those in the period before the financial crisis. The calculations also show that Sweden, Estonia and Bulgaria boast the highest levels of public finance sustainability in the European Union, the author concludes.
Accessibility
The Main Library of the Cracow University of Economics
The Library of Warsaw School of Economics
The Library of University of Economics in Katowice
The Main Library of Poznań University of Economics and Business
The Main Library of the Wroclaw University of Economics
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Bibliography
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ISSN
0867-0005
Language
pol
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