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Koloch Grzegorz (Szkoła Główna Handlowa w Warszawie), Kozłowski Wojciech (Szkoła Główna Handlowa w Warszawie), Piękoś Piotr (Szkoła Główna Handlowa w Warszawie)
On Patterns in Economic Data and Monetary Councils Decisions
Roczniki Kolegium Analiz Ekonomicznych / Szkoła Główna Handlowa, 2007, nr 17, s. 187-202, tab., bibliogr. 16 poz.
Issue title
Discovering patterns in economic data
Wspólna Polityka Monetarna, Stopa procentowa, Cykl koniunkturalny
Common Monetary Policy, Interest rate, Business cycles
The paper presents an attempt to identify decision rules which emulate policy decisions of monetary councils (councils) in Poland, United States and Japan. Policy decisions are defined as decisions concerning target interest rate changes. Generated decision rules emulate therefore monetary authorities' reaction function or policy rules. Accuracy of these rules is measured by the ratio of instances (decisions) correctly classified to the number of all instances under consideration. We take data-mining approach. Short term interest rate is a key monetary authorities' means of stabilizing business cycle in a short run. Friedman and Schwartz (1963) represents probably most influential empirical evidence that money matters for business-cycle fluctuation, and motivation for that kind of stabilizing policy.(original abstract)
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