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Prognozowanie zapotrzebowania na energię elektryczną konsumowaną przez polski przemysł
Forecasting Demand for Power Consumed by the Polish Industry
Zeszyty Naukowe / Akademia Ekonomiczna w Poznaniu, 2007, nr 94, s. 99-115, tab., wykr. bibliogr. 27 poz.
Energia elektryczna, Przemysł, Konsumpcja dóbr przemysłowych
Electric power, Industry, Consumption of industrial goods
W arytkule opisana jest budowa krótkookresowej funkcji regresji na podstawie wskaźników wyprzedzających oszacowanych z szeregów czasowych opisujących zmiany aktywności gospodarczej w poszczególnych sektorach przemysłu i zaproponowanie jej do prognozowania konsumpcji przemysłowej energii elektrycznej w Polsce. (fragment tekstu)

The transformation of electro-energy sector has been taking place since the beginning of the 1990s. It led to radical structural changes of that branch of the power industry. The free market of the industrial electric power provided a stronger link of that economic area with other industry sectors. The most significant economic problem that the electric power producers faced was the synchronisation of the demand and supply before sending the electric power through the network. The lack of final analysis of the electric power demand connections may lead to big losses suffered by the electric power producers who usually estimate the volume of production on the basis of development trends, weather conditions and time, omitting the connections of electro-energy industry with other economic sectors. In the paper a short-term regression function was created on the basis of the leading indicators estimated on the time series which describe the changes of economic activities in particular industry sectors. The created function is a leading indicator to forecast the industrial electricity demand in Poland. It was also proved that electricity consumption expressed by means of physical magnitudes can be forecast more precisely by means of the variables evaluated on the basis of the ratios expressed in actual prices than on the basis of fixed prices. (original abstract)
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