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Pęksyk Marcin (Academy of International Economic and Political Relations), Aven Eyvind (Statoil), Klausen Liv Marit (Statoil)
Accounting for Country Risk in Foreign Direct Investment Appraisal - Comparable Analysis Based on Statoil Case
Uwzględnianie ryzyka kraju w analizie opłacalności projektów zagranicznych inwestycji bezpośrednich - analiza porównawcza w oparciu o portfel inwestycyjny firmy Statoil
Zeszyty Naukowe Uniwersytetu Szczecińskiego. Finanse, Rynki Finansowe, Ubezpieczenia, 2011, nr 38, s. 727-742, rys., tab., bibliogr. 35 poz.
Zarządzanie ryzykiem, Inwestycje zagraniczne, Analiza inwestycyjna, Portfel inwestycyjny, Metody dyskontowe, Metody dyskontowe oceny inwestycji
Risk management, Foreign investment, Investment analysis, Investment portfolio, Discount method, Investment evaluation discount methods
streszcz., summ..
Artykuł koncentruje się na zagadnieniu ekwiwalentności metod oceny projektów bezpośrednich inwestycji zagranicznych z uwzględnieniem ryzyka kraju. Metodzie skorygowanej stopy dyskontowej (RADR) przeciwstawiono wyniki otrzymane przy zastosowaniu scenariuszy ważonych ryzykiem. W badaniu posłużono się projektami inwestycyjnymi norweskiej firmy Statoil. Do weryfikacji hipotez badawczych użyto nieparametrycznych testów statystycznych. (abstrakt oryginalny)

One of the practical problems faced by managers when choosing between alternatives (including whether or not to invest in a particular foreign project), is how to deal with the uncertainty of the outcome(s). Research examined the hypothesis that the risk adjusted discount rate (RADR) method, containing Country Risk premium, can be applied as an equivalent of probability weighted scenarios (PWS) approach in a process of accounting for Country Risk in the expected Net Present Value (NPV) calculation for Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). The experiment was run on a sample taken from the FDI portfolio of Statoil, a Norwegian oil and gas company, which consists of 24 investment cases performed in six countries. The results of this experiment support the hypothesis that, for the tested population, the RADR method is not an equivalent of the PWS approach and that both cannot be used interchangeably to account for Country Risk in the process of FDI appraisal. (original abstract)
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Full text
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