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Twardosz Adam (Cracow University of Economics, Poland, PhD student)
The Influence of Global Imbalances on the Build-up of the Current Financial Crisis
Wpływ nierównowag globalnych na rozwój obecnego kryzysu finansowego
Argumenta Oeconomica Cracoviensia, 2013, no 9, s. 43-66, rys., tab., bibliogr. 44 poz.
Kryzys finansowy, Nierównowaga rynkowa, Przyczyny kryzysu, Rachunek bieżący, Kurs walutowy
Financial crisis, Market imbalance, Causes of crisis, Transaction account, Exchange rates
summ., streszcz.
Nierównowagi globalne były przedmiotem licznych badań już w okresie poprzedzającym ostatni kryzys finansowy i gospodarczy, jednakże dotyczyły innych aspektów. Badania te koncentrowały się głównie na analizie wpływu nierównowag bilansu płatniczego na rynki walutowe oraz na sektor realny. W niniejszym artykule podjęto problem nierównowag globalnych w odmienny sposób - przez opisanie ciągu zdarzeń przyczynowo-skutkowych, z którego wynika, że to właśnie nadmierna ekspansja monetarna i fiskalna skutkowały wzrostem deficytu bilansu płatniczego Stanów Zjednoczonych. Proces inwestowania rosnących nadwyżek finansowych przez główne kraje eksportujące miał wpływ na rynki kredytowe oraz aktywów (giełda i nieruchomości), co doprowadziło do przyszłych zawirowań gospodarczych. (abstrakt oryginalny)

The issue of global imbalances already emerged in the pre-crisis era, albeit in a different context. Research was mostly concentrated on analysing how distortions in the external positions of the main countries would affect future turbulence on foreign exchange markets and in the real sector before reaching new equilibrium points. This article addresses the problem in a different manner by describing the causal link between monetary and fiscal expansion and the resulting increase in trade deficit. The process of reinvestment of foreign exchange reserves by surplus countries affects credit, stock and real estate markets, thus paving the way for future turmoil. (original abstract)
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Full text
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