- Nagyova Andrea
- The forecast of GDP in economy of Slovak Republic by the year 2002
- Polityka Gospodarcza, 2001-2002, nr 5-6, s. 219-225, rys., tab.
- Produkt krajowy brutto (PKB), Prognozowanie makroekonomiczne
Gross domestic product (GDP), Macroeconomic forecasting
- At beginning try to answer a question "Why is forecasting so unavoidable for market economies?" The one consideration is that flourishing and efficiency of instruments of the economic policy depend on the correct forecast of economic development in the future. These instruments of economic policy do not work immediately and influence the economic process after a period of time. Therefore is necessary to forecast the development of national economy and also use it in making macroeconomic decisions for the continuous development and economy growth in advance. The reliability of forecast depends on information accessible for prognostic authors and on a prognostic model which they used. Generally the forecasts are supported by statistics information covered in a system of national account. In Slovakia the process of creating a complete system of national account continues and it causes an information barrier. This barrier is complicating the process of making macroeconomics prognosis. Also there is a minimum one year time delay in publishing official macroeconomic data. The second assumption to arrange macroeconomic forecast is using a prognostic model. Usually there are used the econometric models which are based on a system of equations describing the fundamental relations in national economy. In practice there are often combined with other methods of forecasting like reflexive methods, intuitive methods or forecasts based on a long-time experiences of specialists in due area - expertness methods. The following forecast of gross domestic product and its components in Slovakia is made by extrapolation method.
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