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Author
Göktaş Pinar (Muğla Sıtkı Koçman University, Turkey)
Title
Can Unprocessed Food Prices Really Be One of the Main Responsible Causes for not Achieving Inflation Targets in Turkey?
Source
Zeszyty Naukowe SGGW w Warszawie. Problemy Rolnictwa Światowego, 2016, t. 16(31), z. 4, s. 99-114, rys., tab., bibliogr. 73 poz.
Scientific Journal Warsaw University of Life Sciences SGGW - Problems of Word Agriculture
Keyword
Ceny żywności, Indeks cen, Model GARCH, Przyczynowość w sensie Grangera
Food prices, Price index, GARCH model, Granger casuality
Note
streszcz., summ.
Country
Turcja
Turkey
Abstract
Parallel to international conjecture, as of 2006 food prices, particularly those of unprocessed foods, have displayed high levels of fluctuation and it is know that these fluctuations have increased in more recent years. In the explanations and reports issued by economic circles and fiscal authorities, it is frequently emphasized that fluctuations seen in food prices result in negative influences on inflation and particularly the fluctuations observed in unprocessed foods create serious uncertainties by making inflation forecasting quite difficult. In the current study, whether there is some kind of interaction between 2006:01-2016:03 inflation realizations in Turkey and food prices, processed and unprocessed food prices and uncertainties obtained by using GARCH-type volatility forecasting models was analyzed through VAR Granger causality tests.The findings obtained in the current study support the explanations of economic circles to a great extent. (original abstract)
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ISSN
2081-6960
Language
eng
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