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Sniedovich Moshe (University of Melbourne, Australia)
The Art and Science of Modeling Decision-Making Under Severe Uncertainty
Decision Making in Manufacturing and Services, 2007, vol. 1, nr 1/2, s. 111-136, rys., tab., bibliogr. 19 poz.
Podejmowanie decyzji w warunkach niepewności, Luka informacyjna, Modelowanie matematyczne
Decision making under uncertainty, Information gap, Mathematical modeling
For obvious reasons, models for decision-making under severe uncertainty are austere. Simply put, there is precious little to work with under these conditions. This fact highlights the great importance of utilizing in such cases the ingredients of the mathematical model to the fullest extent, which in turn brings under the spotlight the art of mathematical modeling. In this discussion we examine some of the subtle considerations that are called for in the mathematical modeling of decision-making under severe uncertainty in general, and worst-case analysis in particular. As a case study we discuss the lessons learnt on this front from the Info-Gap experience.(original abstract)
Full text
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