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Author
Czupryna Marcin (Cracow University of Economics, Poland), Kubińska Elżbieta (Cracow University of Economics, Poland), Markiewicz Łukasz (Kozminski University, Poland)
Title
On the Need for Cognitive Closure and Judgmental Trend Forecasting
O potrzebie domknięcia poznawczego i prognozowania trendu
Source
Argumenta Oeconomica Cracoviensia, 2017, no 17, s. 21-32, rys., tab., bibliogr. 9 poz.
Keyword
Prognozowanie, Analiza szeregów czasowych, Analiza trendu
Forecasting, Time-series analysis, Trend analysis
Note
JEL Classification: G410, C580
summ., streszcz.
Abstract
W artykule została przedstawiona hipoteza, że potrzeba domknięcia poznawczego wpływa na ograniczone wykorzystanie informacji ujętych w historycznych danych podczas tworzenia prognoz tylko w przypadku trendów bocznych. W celu weryfikacji tej hipotezy zrealizowano trzy eksperymenty, w każdym z nich uczestnicy prognozowali przyszłą wartość na podstawie dostępnego szeregu czasowego. Skupiono się na analizie trendów. Zbadano, w jaki sposób trendy w danych historycznych są wykorzystywane jako podstawa tworzenia prognoz w zależności od psychologicznych inklinacji, w szczególności potrzeby domknięcia poznawczego. (abstrakt oryginalny)

The paper considers the following hypothesis: humans' need for cognitive closure reduces the usage of historical observations in judgmental forecasts only in horizontal trends. To test this hypothesis, three studies were conducted. In each, participants forecasted the next, unknown observation using the previous time series. The analysis concentrated on trend analysis and how the trends in historical data are used as the basis for forecasting depending on psychological traits, in particular cognitive closure. (original abstract)
Accessibility
The Main Library of the Cracow University of Economics
The Library of Warsaw School of Economics
The Main Library of Poznań University of Economics and Business
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Bibliography
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ISSN
1642-168X
Language
eng
URI / DOI
http://dx.doi.org/10.15678/AOC.2017.1702
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