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Przystupa Jan (Narodowy Bank Polski)
Symmetric or Asymmetric? : Monetary Policy and Polish Economy Reactions over the Business Cycle
Bank i Kredyt, 2019, nr 4, s. 375-410, aneks, bibliogr. 39 poz.
Bank & Credit
Polityka pieniężna, Cykl koniunkturalny, Modele nieliniowe, Wyniki badań
Monetary policy, Business cycles, Nonlinear models, Research results
JEL Classification: C11, C32, C61, E12, E32, E52
In the paper, we examine whether monetary policy and reactions of the economy to monetary policy are symmetric over the business cycle. Not only do we study the differences between prosperity and slump, but also between all the phases of the business cycle, i.e. recovery, expansion, recession and depression. Moreover, we analyse reactions in all points of the business cycle. We find asymmetry in the reactions of monetary policy for the output gap close to zero, but the result disappears in a shorter sample. The effects of monetary policy are symmetric for the output gap between - 2.0% and 1.5%. The asymmetry appears with the output gap getting closer to its extreme values. This result is robust across various samples. (original abstract)
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