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Author
Jabłonowski Janusz (Department of Economics I, SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Poland)
Title
Crowding Out of Informal Economy Labour Supply by Unconditional Child Benefits
Wypieranie z podaży pracy pracowników z szarej strefy przez bezwarunkowe zasiłki na dzieci
Source
Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, 2022, nr 1, s. 31-43, rys., tab., wykr., bibliogr. 24 poz.;
Keyword
Rynek pracy, Cykl koniunkturalny, Transfery rządowe, Finanse państwa, Efekt wypychania, Szara strefa
Labour market, Business cycles, Government transfers, State finance, Crowding out effect, Grey economy
Note
JEL Classification: C61, E24, E62, H53, I26
summ., streszcz.
Abstract
Artykuł proponuje modyfikację rozwiązania teoretycznego, które powoduje wypieranie słabiej wykształconej siły roboczej z szarej strefy w odpowiedzi na skokowy wzrost transferów rządowych. Negatywny wpływ powszechnych zasiłków na dzieci (UCB) mierzy odpływ podaży pracy z szarej strefy. Po ich wprowadzeniu w 2016 r. najprawdopodobniej na stałe ubyło z rynku pracy ok. 160 tys. kobiet. Badanie weryfikuje to założenie z modelem realnego cyklu koniunkturalnego (RBC), z dwoma typami gospodarstw domowych, które reagują na pozytywny szok wynikający z transferów rządowych. Czynnik endogeniczny wzrostu w modelu wynika ze stopy zwrotu z wykształcenia wyższego i uczenia ustawicznego. Model dobrze opisuje agregaty statystyczne polskiej gospodarki. Estymacja bayesowska również wykazuje akceptowalne dopasowanie do szeregów czasowych, co pozwala na szersze zastosowanie w innych przypadkach impulsu fiskalnego skutkującego spadkiem aktywności zawodowej beneficjentów. Badanie wnosi wartość dodaną do dyskusji na temat marginesów interwencji rządu w gospodarkę, która w pewnym momencie może wypierać gorzej wykształconych pracowników w szarej strefie. (abstrakt oryginalny)

The article proposes a modified version of a theoretical model that crowds out less educated workforce from the informal economy in response to a shock in government transfers. The negative impact of universal child benefits (UCB) is measured by the outflow of labour from the informal economy in Poland. After it was introduced in the country in 2016, the "Family 500+" child benefit programme probably caused a permanent outflow of some 160,000 jobs from the labour market. The study verifies this assumption with a real business cycle (RBC) model, with two types of households responding to a positive shock resulting from government transfers. The endogenous growth factor in the model results from the rate of return on higher education and lifelong learning. The model describes the statistical aggregates of the Polish economy. A Bayesian estimation shows an acceptable fit to the time series, which allows for wider use of the fiscal impulse resulting in a decline in the economic activity of beneficiaries. The study adds to a debate on the margins of government intervention in the economy, which at some point may displace less educated workers in the shadow economy.(original abstract)
Accessibility
The Main Library of the Cracow University of Economics
The Library of Warsaw School of Economics
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Bibliography
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ISSN
0867-0005
Language
eng
URI / DOI
http://dx.doi.org/10.33119/GN/144206
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