BazEkon - The Main Library of the Cracow University of Economics

BazEkon home page

Main menu

Author
Moskalenko Oleksandra (Kyiv National Economic University After Vadym Hetman, Kyiv, Ukraine)
Title
How is the Post-Pandemic Economy Transforming into a Post-War Economy in Ukraine: Challenges for Economic Policy and Society?
Jak gospodarka postpandemiczna przekształca się na Ukrainie w powojenną: wyzwania dla polityki gospodarczej i społeczeństwa
Source
Bezpieczny Bank, 2022, nr 1 (86), s. 9-32, rys., tab., bibliogr. s. 29-32
Keyword
Pandemia, Gospodarka, Polityka gospodarcza, Ożywienie gospodarcze, Interwencja zbrojna,
Pandemic, Economy, Economic policy, Economic revival, Military intervention,
Note
JEL Classification: E02, H22, H41, I30, O11
streszcz., summ.
Country
Ukraina
Ukraine
Abstract
Artykuł uwzględnia specyfikę ukraińskiej transformacji gospodarczej pod wpływem ostatnich szoków makroekonomicznych, tj. światowej pandemii i wojny. Głównym celem badań jest analiza wyzwań stojących przed ukraińskim społeczeństwem i gospodarką w warunkach pandemii oraz militarnej agresji i instrumentów polityki gospodarczej, którymi posługiwał się rząd. Przedstawiono analizę nowego cyklu koniunkturalnego dla Ukrainy w formie W z wyjaśnieniem trajektorii ożywienia, w których istotną rolę odgrywa międzynarodowe wsparcie gospodarcze. Określono kierunki i środki finansowe na odbudowę powojennej gospodarki Ukrainy, w tym pomoc międzynarodową ze strony krajów partnerskich (członków UE, USA i innych), organizacji międzynarodowych (MFW, Grupa Banku Światowego, UNDP) oraz powstającego Funduszu Solidarności. W artykule przedstawiono wstępne szacunki szkód w infrastrukturze transportowej, społecznej, mieszkaniowej i innych strat materialnych, a także problem przymusowej emigracji obywateli Ukrainy. Artykuł zawiera oceny MFW dotyczące wpływu wojny na Ukrainie na gospodarkę światową oraz praktyczne zalecenia dla rządów w zakresie polityki monetarnej i fiskalnej. (abstrakt oryginalny)

The article considers the specifics of the Ukrainian economic transformation under the impact of recent macroeconomic shocks, i.e. the world pandemic and the war. The main goal of the research is the analysis of the challenges to the Ukrainian economy and society under the pandemic and the military aggression and economic policy instruments that the government used. An analysis of the new business cycle for Ukraine in W-form is presented with an explanation of the recovery trajectories, where international economic support plays its significant role The directions of and financial resources for the recovery of Ukraine's post-war economy have been identified, including international assistance from partner countries (EU members, USA, and others), international organizations (IMF, World Bank Group, UNDP), and the Solidarity Fund that is going to be created. Preliminary estimates of damage to transport and social infrastructure, housing, and other material losses, as well as the problem of forced emigration of Ukrainian citizens are presented in this-article. The paper includes the IMF's assessments of how the war in Ukraine impacts the global economy and its practical recommendations for monetary and fiscal policies for governments. (original abstract)
Accessibility
The Main Library of the Cracow University of Economics
Full text
Show
Bibliography
Show
  1. Bénassy-Quéré, A., di Mauro, B. W. Europe in the time of Covid-19: A new crash test and a new opportunity, VoxEU CEPR, vol. 26 May 2020, available at: https://voxeu.org/article/europe-time-covid-19-new-crash-test-and-new-opportunity (15.09.2021).
  2. de Bolle M., Obstfeld M., Posen A.S. (2021), "Economic Policy for a Pandemic Age: How the World Must Prepare", Briefing 21-2, Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE), available at: https://www.piie.com/sites/default/files/documents/piieb21-2.pdf (18.09.2021).
  3. C-Suite Challenge™ : COVID-19 Recovery Survey - Japan Edition, The Conference Board, 18 pages, https://www.conference-board.org/pdfdownload.cfm?masterProductID=21119.
  4. CEOs around the globe not optimistic about speed of recovery, The Conference Board, August 04, 2020, https://www.conference-board.org/topics/natural-disasters-pandemics/CEOs-around-the-Globe-Not-Optimistic-about-Speed-of-Recovery.
  5. Consumer Price Index in December 2020, State Statistical Service of Ukraine, Message, 13.01.2021, https://zakon.rada.gov.ua/rada/show/n0001832-21#Text.
  6. During the war, Ukraine received $ 15 billion in aid - the NBU, Slovo I Dilo, 3 March 2022, https://www.slovoidilo.ua/2022/03/03/novyna/finansy/ukrayina-vijny-otrymala-dopomohy-15-mlrd-dolariv-ekvivalenti-nbu.
  7. IMF Executive Board Approves US$ 1.4 Billion in Emergency Financing Support to Ukraine, March 9, 2022, https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2022/03/09/pr2269-ukraine-imf-executive-board-approves-usd-billion-in-emergency-financing-support-to-ukraine.
  8. IMF Staff Statement on the Economic Impact of War in Ukraine, March 5, 2022, https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2022/03/05/pr2261-imf-staff-statement-on-the-economic-impact-of-war-in-ukraine.
  9. The IMF estimates the decline in Ukraine's GDP in 2022 by 10%, Interfax News Agency reports, https://ua.interfax.com.ua/news/general/813250.html.
  10. Ghosh I., The Shape of Economic Recovery, According to CEOs, World Economic Forum, no. 22 September 2020, https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/09/covid19-recovery-shape-economy-ceo/ (12.10.2021).
  11. Georgieva, K. Frank talk: there is no return to the past. Investing in Policies That Benefit People Will Help Create a Better Economy for the Post-Crisis World, "Finansyi i razvitie", 2020, vol. 12, pp. 22-25.
  12. Global Pease Index 2021. Measuring Peace in a complex World, Institute for Economics and Peace, https://www.visionofhumanity.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/GPI-2021-web-1.pdf.
  13. Government plans to release military IGLBs for 400 billion UAH, "Finbalance", 25.02.2022, https://finbalance.com.ua/news/uryad-planu-vipustiti-viyskovi-ovdp-na-400-mlrd-hrn---shmihal.
  14. How High is the Cost of War Around the World in 2019? Vision of humanity, https://www.visionofhumanity.org/how-does-war-and-violence-affect-an-economy/#:~:text=The%20global%20economic%20impact%20of,estimated%20to%20be%20%2414.4%20trillion
  15. King B. Use Russian money to rebuild Ukraine, says bank boss, BBC News, 10 March 2022, https://www.bbc.com/news/business-60684660?fbclid=IwAR1XT-xnVjhh4Rusw6bxMprHQ9Jgp-8pPdVs4bzNSAgFFlpF2WNUtA9L998.
  16. NBU: international financial, technical, humanitarian support for Ukraine - more than $ 15 billion, Finbalance: Finance and Economics, URL: https://finbalance.com.ua/news/nbu-mizhnarodna-finansova-tekhnichna-humanitarna-pidtrimka-dlya-ukrani---ponad-15-mlrd.
  17. Every day without the restoration of peace accelerates the impoverishment of Ukraine, warns UNDP, March 16, 2022, Press Release.
  18. Economic policy priorities for a post-pandemic recovery, European Parliament, Press Releases 22-02-2021, https://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/press-room/20210219IPR98206/economic-policy-priorities-for-a-post-pandemic-recovery (18.10.2021).
  19. Experts have calculated the previous damage to infrastructure from the war in Ukraine, 17.03.2022, DW, https://www.dw.com/uk/eksperty-pidrakhuvaly-poperedni-zbytky-infrastruktury-vid-viiny-v-ukraini/a-61165782.
  20. EU leaders plan to agree on the establishment of the Solidarity Fund with Ukraine, "Ukrainian Pravda", https://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2022/03/22/7333581/.
  21. Impact of COVID-19 on the country's economy and society: Results of 2020 and challenges and threats of post-pandemic development, Department of Strategic Planning and Macroeconomic, 2021, Forecasting available at: https://vvv.me.gov.ua/Dotsuments/List?lang=uk-UA&tag=Konsensus-prognoz (Accessed 12 October 2021).
  22. Filipenko, A. S., Moskalenko, O.M., Zaitsev, Yu. K. (eds.), Productivity of Contemporary Economies: Theory and Evidence, Cambridge Scholar Publishing, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK, 2021.
  23. Hauten, M., Chzhaoli, M., Deli, Y., Hualey, V. China's Digital Transformation. Experience of transforming the infrastructure of the national economy, Intelektualnaya literatura, Moscow, Russia, 2019.
  24. Heiets', V. M. The phenomenon of instability - a challenge to economic development, 1st ed, Akademperiodyka, Kyiv, Ukraine, 2020.
  25. Hassler, J., Krusell, P., Ravn, M., Storesletten, K. Economic policy under the pandemic: A European perspective, VOXEU CEPR, no. 07 July, 2020, https://voxeu.org/article/economic-policy-under-pandemic-european-perspective (18.09.2021).
  26. Law of Ukraine of 15.03.2022 № 2120-IX "On Amendments to the Tax Code of Ukraine and Other Legislative Acts of Ukraine Concerning the Validity of Norms for the Period of Martial Law".
  27. Moskalenko O. A new paradigm of economic policy for the post-pandemic economy, "Efficient economy", No 10, 2021, http://www.economy.nayka.com.ua/?op=1&z=9428 (14.11.2021). doi: 10.32702 / 2307-2105-2021.10.17.
  28. Ostry, J. D., Loungani, P., Berg, A. Confronting Inequality: How Societies Can Choose Inclusive Growth, Columbia University Press, New York, The USA, 2019.
  29. Pettinger T. Economic impact of war, 24 February 2022 https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/2180/economics/economic-impact-of-war/.
  30. Pisani-Ferry, J. The economic policy consequences of the war, Bruegel Blog, 8 March 2022, https://www.bruegel.org/2022/03/the-economic-policy-consequences-of-the-war/.
  31. Policy Responses to Covid-19. Policy Tracker, International Monetary Fund, 2021, https://www.imf.org/en/Topics/imf-and-covid19/Policy-Responses-to-COVID-19 (18.10.2021).
  32. Salmon, F., Ro, S. The post-pandemic economy has already arrived, "Axios - Economy & Business", no. Aug 5, 2021, https://www.axios.com/post-pandemic-economy-has-arrived-61437db6-f504-4969-80dd-b015bbb55b83.html (20.10.2021).
  33. Samuel R. Schubert & Johannes Pollak & Elina Brutschin, Two futures: EU-Russia relations in the context of Ukraine, "Brutschin Eur J Futures Res", 2:52, 2014, doi: 10.1007/s40309-014-0052-7, https://eujournalfuturesresearch.springeropen.com/track/pdf/10.1007/s40309-014-0052-7.pdf.
  34. Sandbu, M. Brave new world after the pandemic. Decisions taken by policymakers during the current turmoil can shape the economy for decades to come , "Finansy i razvitie", 2020, vol.12, pp. 5-9.
  35. Sharma, D., Bouchaud J.-Ph., Gualdi S., Tarzia M., Zamponi F. V-, U-, L- or W-shaped economic recovery after Covid-19: Insights from an Agent Based Model, "Plos one", March 2 2021, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0247823.
  36. Sochinsky V. The war is over - what's next? How to rebuild the country after the war. Priorities for government, business and international partners, Eonomichna Pravda, 10 March 2022, https://www.epravda.com.ua/columns/2022/03/10/683726/.
  37. Situation On The Labor Market And Activities Of The Civil Employment Service In 2020, https://www.dcz.gov.ua/sites/default/files/infofiles/sytuaciya_na_rp_ta_diyalnist_dsz__0.pdf.
  38. State Statistics: Consumer Inflation In Ukraine In 2021 - 10%, Finbalance, https://finbalance.com.ua/news/derzhstat-spozhivcha-inflyatsiya-v-ukrani-za-2021-rik (11.01.2022)
  39. The Main Indicators Of Socio-Economic Development Of Ukraine, State Statistics Service Of Ukraine, http://www.ukrstat.gov.ua/.
  40. The Russians took five ships with Ukrainian grain out of Berdyansk, Zaxid.net. 20 March 2022, , https://zaxid.net/rosiyani_viveli_z_berdyanskogo_portu_pyat_ukrayinskih_korabliv_iz_zernom_n1539004.
  41. The World Bank is preparing $ 3 billion in aid to Ukraine, Finbalance: Finance and Economics, 02.03.2022, https://finbalance.com.ua/news/svitoviy-bank-hotu-3-mlrd-dopomohi-ukrani.
  42. The United States is providing $ 800 million in military aid to Ukraine, details, 16 March 2022, Voice of America (Ukr.), https://ukrainian.voanews.com/a/6488095.
  43. Ukraine 2030E is a country with a developed digital economy, Ukrainian Institute of the Future, 2020, https://strategy.uifuture.org/kraina-z-rozvinutoyu-cifrovoyu-ekonomikoyu.html (12.12.2020).
  44. Ukraine war now 'apocalyptic' humanitarians warn, in call for safe access, 8 March 2022, "UN News: Global perspective Human stories", https://news.un.org/en/story/2022/03/1113512.
  45. Ukraine in 2020-2021: Consequences of the pandemic, Consensus forecast №51, Department of Strategic Planning and Macroeconomic Forecasting at the Ministry of Economics of Ukraine, 2021, https://www.me.gov.ua/Documents/List?lang=uk-UA&tag=Konsensus-prognoz (10.09.2021).
  46. The Ukrainian economy could fall by at least 10% of this thing due to the war, "Economic Truth", March 14, 2022, https://www.epravda.com.ua/news/2022/03/14/684017/.
  47. Volodymyr Zelensky: Over 40% of the main road network of Ukraine has been renovated and built within two years within the framework of the Large Construction Program, 24 .12.2021, President of Ukraine: official online publication, , https://www.president.gov.ua/news/volodimir-zelenskij-za-dva-roki-v-mezhah-programi-velike-bud-72245/.
Cited by
Show
ISSN
1429-2939
Language
eng
URI / DOI
http://dx.doi.org/10.26354/bb.1.1.86.2022
Share on Facebook Share on Twitter Share on Google+ Share on Pinterest Share on LinkedIn Wyślij znajomemu