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Author
Chmura Rafał (SGH Warsaw School of Economics)
Title
Stabilizing, Neutral or Destabilizing? The Impact of Fiscal Rules on the GDP Volatility in the EU Countries
Stabilizujące, neutralne czy destabilizacyjne? Wpływ reguł fiskalnych na zmienność PKB w krajach Unii Europejskiej
Source
Bank i Kredyt, 2023, nr 5, s. 475-498, bibliogr. 27 poz., zał.
Bank & Credit
Keyword
Polityka fiskalna, Reguły fiskalne, Cykl koniunkturalny, Produkt krajowy brutto (PKB)
Fiscal policy, Fiscal rules, Business cycles, Gross domestic product (GDP)
Note
JEL Classification: E62, E32, C23
streszcz., summ.
Company
Unia Europejska (UE)
European Union (EU)
Abstract
Celem artykułu jest zbadanie wpływu krajowych reguł fiskalnych na zmienność wzrostu gospodarczego w krajach Unii Europejskiej. Pozwoli to odpowiedzieć na pytanie, czy reguły fiskalne, z których korzystają obecnie wszystkie kraje UE, mają własności antycykliczne i wpisują się w funkcję stabilizacyjną polityki gospodarczej państwa, a jeżeli tak, to które rodzaje reguł fiskalnych najsilniej wiążą się z łagodzeniem wahań tempa wzrostu gospodarczego. W celu oceny antycyklicznych własności reguł fiskalnych (oraz, szerzej, oddziaływania w tym zakresie polityki fiskalnej) w artykule dokonano - za pomocą metod ekonometrycznych - analizy empirycznej zakresu fluktuacji tempa wzrostu PKB w krajach UE w latach 1995-2019 oraz możliwych czynników, które wpływały na wielkość tych fluktuacji. Dokonano tego na dwa sposoby. (skrócony abstrakt oryginalny)

The goal of the present article is to estimate the impact of numerical fiscal rules on the volatility of GDP growth in the European Union countries in 1995-2019 to answer the question about their counter- -cyclical and stabilizing properties. The obtained results show that the introduction and the wider use of fiscal rules in the EU countries reduced economic fluctuations - an increase in the Fiscal Rules Index of one standard deviation was associated with a decrease in the volatility of the GDP growth rate of approximately 20%. When analysing different types of fiscal rules existing in the EU countries, the biggest reduction in GDP volatility was obtained for countries where debt rules were in force. In the case of "operational" rules, the budget balance rules have a stronger impact on limiting GDP growth fluctuations, while the impact of expenditure rules in this matter turned out to be insignificant. (original abstract)
Accessibility
The Main Library of the Cracow University of Economics
The Library of Warsaw School of Economics
The Library of University of Economics in Katowice
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ISSN
0137-5520
Language
eng
URI / DOI
http://dx.doi.org/10.5604/01.3001.0054.5720
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