- Author
- Dunin-Wąsowicz Maria (Forum Ruchu Europejskiego)
- Title
- Inflation vs Inflation Expectations in 2020-2021 - the Impact of the Covid-19 Pandemic
Inflacja a oczekiwania inflacyjne w latach 2020-2021 - wpływ pandemii COVID-19 - Source
- Acta Scientiarum Polonorum. Oeconomia, 2024, R. 23, nr 2, s. 5-16, rys., bibliogr. 46 poz.
- Keyword
- Inflacja, Pandemia, COVID-19
Inflation, Pandemic, COVID-19 - Note
- JEL Classification: B30, C00, E31
streszcz., summ. - Abstract
- Cel: Podczas pandemii COVID-19 w okresie lat 2020-2021 nastąpił wysoki wzrost inflacji oraz odpowied-nio oczekiwań inflacyjnych w Stanach Zjednoczonych (USA), Unii Europejskiej (UE), a także w strefie euro (EA). Przebieg zmian wskaźników makroekonomicznych we wskazanych trzech obszarach polityczno-gospodarczych USA, UE i EA zwraca uwagę na obecność zależności między dynamiką inflacji a taką dynamiką oczekiwań inflacyjnych. Oba typy zmian charakteryzują zarówno zachowania konsumentów, jak i zachowania grup profesjonalnych prognostów. Celem artykułu jest zbadanie sekwencji zmian obu wskazanych zjawisk zarówno z wykorzystaniem opisowej metody analizy danych ankietowych, jak i w wyniku zastosowania hybrydowego modelu szacowania oczekiwań inflacyjnych.
Metody: Metodyka badań polega na zastosowaniu techniki opisowej analizy danych w odniesieniu do długoterminowego rozkładu zjawisk inflacji i oczekiwań inflacyjnych obserwowanych wśród konsumentów i profesjonalnych prognostów w USA, UE i EA w latach 1999-2019. Z kolei do oszacowania danych dotyczących zjawiska inflacji oraz oczekiwań inflacyjnych w krótkim okresie 2021 roku wykorzystano hybrydowy model oczekiwań inflacyjnych. W opracowaniu zestawiono i porównano wyniki obu typów badań.
Wyniki: Analizy wskazują, że w czasie pandemii obserwuje się występowanie okresowo średnio-wysokiej inflacji w trzech analizowanych obszarach gospodarczych, podczas gdy jednocześnie oczekiwania inflacyjne w USA i UE były okresowo słabo zakotwiczone, choć jednocześnie odnotowano ich ustabilizowanie w EA.
Wnioski: Z badań polegających na analizie trendów zmian cenowych oraz zmian oczekiwań inflacyjnych w różnych okresach czasowych - długo- i krótkoterminowych - wynika istnienie zaobserwowanych spójnych wzorców zależności między dynamiką inflacji, a taką dynamiką oczekiwań inflacyjnych również ze względu na występowanie podobieństw w przebiegu obu typów zjawisk przed pandemią oraz w jej trakcie. (abstrakt oryginalny)
Aim: During the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020-2021, there was a significant increase in inflation and inflation expectations due to the government policies of the United States (US) and the European Union (EU), including the Euro Area (EA). With that being said, the evolving situation within these three political-economic areas highlights the importance of understanding the relationship between inflation and inflation expectations, as perceived by both consumers and professional forecasters. The purpose of this article is to analyze the changes in these phenomena, using descriptive survey' data analysis and a hybrid model of inflation expectations. Methods: The research methods refer to the descriptive survey data analysis that provides evidence on the long-term courses of inflation in the US, the EU, and the EA, as well as the consumers' and professional forecasters' inflation expectations within the period 1999-2019. A hybrid model of inflation expectations has been used to estimate this data during the period of 2021. The study correlates and compares the findings of both types of research. Results: The results demonstrate that dur-ing the pandemic, the evidence supports the occurrence of periodic medium-high inflation in the studied economic areas. Inflation expectations in the US and the EU were periodically weakly anchored, although they were stabilized in the EA. Conclusions: The research, conducted by analyzing price trends and their expected trajectories over various timeframes, revealed consistent patterns. These patterns highlighted similarities in anticipated price changes before and during the pandemic. (original abstract) - Full text
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- Bibliography
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- Cited by
- ISSN
- 1644-0757
- Language
- eng
- URI / DOI
- http://dx.doi.org/10.22630/ASPE.2024.23.2.5