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Problemy konstrukcji syntetycznego wskaźnika koniunktury dla gospodarki polskiej
Problems Involved in the Development of the Synthetic Business Indicator for the Polish Economy
Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego / Szkoła Główna Handlowa, 1997, nr 51, s. 343-357
Koniunktura gospodarcza, Cykl koniunkturalny, Syntetyczny wskaźnik aktywności gospodarczej
Business trends, Business cycles, Synthetic indicator of economic activity
W artykule omówiono koncepcję wskaźnika koniunktury opartego na wykorzystaniu danych ankietowych. Przedstawiono ogólne założenia konstrukcji wskaźnika, zagadnienie syntetycznego wskaźnika koniunktury według formuły wstępnej oraz główne problemy poznawczo-prognostyczne w jego wykorzystaniu.

This is a concise review of the major methodological problems related to the development of the general indicator of business activity for the Polish economy based on the RIED survey data. The first part of the paper presents the basic assumptions underlying the construction of the RIED's general indicator as well as the formula used in calculating it. In the early stage the synthetic indicator had been compiled from the qualitative data rendered by three surveys covering industry, agriculture and households. By the end of 1993 the formula was extended to include two new surveys launched in construction and trade. The second part discussess the following methodological problems faced in the development of the synthetic indicator for the whole economy: (a) comparison of the two versions of the indicator differing in the input data for industry, (b) comparison of the original and the extended version of the indicator, (c) the concepts of variable weights that could replace the constant weight system now used in compiling the synthetic indicator. (original abstract)
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