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Matkowski Zbigniew
Złożone wskaźniki koniunktury dla gospodarki polskiej oparte na wynikach badań ankietowych
Composite Indicators of Business Activity for Poland Based on Survey Data
Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego / Szkoła Główna Handlowa, 1999, nr 64, s. 319-332, bibliogr. 20 poz.
Koniunktura gospodarcza, Cykl koniunkturalny, Wahania koniunkturalne, Syntetyczny wskaźnik aktywności gospodarczej, Badania ankietowe, Monitoring gospodarczy
Business trends, Business cycles, Business fluctuations, Synthetic indicator of economic activity, Questionnaire survey, Economic monitoring
Celem artykułu jest pokazanie możliwości wykorzystania danych ankietowych w ocenach i prognozach dotyczących ogólnego stanu gospodarki.

This is a follow-up study to the paper presented at the 24th CIRET Conference in Wellington. The paper contaisn an updated and revised analysis of the applicability of survey data in monitoring systems based on barometric methods, devised to evaluate the current condition of the economy. The first part shows the use of survey data in macroeconomic barometers for Poland, developed by the author according to OECD standards. The second part compares various concepts of the synthetic indicator of business activity for Poland, filled with survey data. Some of the alternative variants refer to the EU concept of economic sentiment indicator (ESI) while other are more closely linked to the GDP concept. The choice of the most adequate formula requires further observation of the performance of alternative indicators over a longer time. (original abstract)
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