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Autor
Hagemejer Jan (National Bank of Poland; University of Warsaw), Jędrzejowicz Tomasz (National Bank of Poland), Żółkiewski Zbigniew (National Bank of Poland)
Tytuł
Fiscal Tightening after the Crisis : a Scenario Analysis for Poland
Źródło
Bank i Kredyt, 2011, nr 3, s. 33-59, tab., rys., aneks, bibliogr. 31 poz.
Słowa kluczowe
Budżet państwa, Deficyt budżetowy, Obliczeniowy model równowagi ogólnej, Kryzys finansowy
State budget, Budget deficit, Computable General Equilibrium model (CGE), Financial crisis
Uwagi
summ.
Abstrakt
Poland has experienced a great deal of worsening of its fiscal situation following the economic slowdown of 2008-2009 caused by the worldwide financial crisis. General government deficit reached around 8% of GDP in 2010 both as a result of lower economic activity but also due to structural loosening that took part in the period immediately preceding the crisis. We attempt to assess which of the two contrasting fiscal consolidation strategies: expenditure-versus revenuefocused may be considered as preferable from the point of view of economic activity. The assessment is carried out using a recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium model. Our results show that, while the tightening has a negative effect on consumption, in the short run, the reaction of private consumption, employment and GDP in the medium run will greatly depend on the flexibility of the labour market and the behavior of private investment. We conclude that the expenditure-focused tightening scheme is consistently superior under all closures to the revenue-oriented scenario. (original abstract)
Dostępne w
Biblioteka Główna Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego w Krakowie
Biblioteka SGH im. Profesora Andrzeja Grodka
Biblioteka Główna Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego w Katowicach
Biblioteka Główna Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego w Poznaniu
Biblioteka Główna Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego we Wrocławiu
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Bibliografia
Pokaż
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  2. Alesina A., Ardagna S. (2009), Large changes in fiscal policy: taxes versus spending, NBER Working Paper, 15438.
  3. Alesina A., Ardagna S., Perotti R., Schiantarelli F. (2002), Fiscal Policy, Profits, and Investment, American Economic Review, 92 (3), 571-589.
  4. Armington P. (1969), A Theory of Demand for Products Distinguished by Place of Production, International Monetary Fund Staff Papers, XVI, 159-178.
  5. Blanchard O. (1990), Comment on Giavazzi and Pagano, NBER Macroeconomics Annual, MIT Press, 110-117.
  6. Brender A., Drazen A. (2008), How Do Budget Deficits and Economic Growth Affect Reelection Prospects? Evidence from a Large Panel of Countries, American Economic Review, 98 (5), 2203- 2220.
  7. Clinton K., Kumhof M., Laxton D., Mursula S. (2010), Budget Consolidation: Short-Term Pain and Long-Term Gain, IMF Working Paper, WP/10/163.
  8. European Commission (2010), European Economic Forecast, Autumn 2010, European Economy, 7/2010.
  9. Freedman C., Kumhof M., Laxton D., Muir D., Mursula S. (2010), Global Effects of Fiscal Stimulus During the Crisis, Journal of Monetary Economics, 57 (5), 506-526.
  10. Gradzewicz M., Griffin P., Zólkiewski Z. (2006), An Empirical Recursive-Dynamic General Equilibrium Model of Poland's Economy. Including Simulations of the Labor Market Effects of Key Structural Fiscal Policy Reforms, Document of the World Bank and National Bank of Poland, Warsaw.
  11. Hausner J. (2003), Program uporządkowania i ograniczenia wydatków publicznych, Ministerstwo Gospodarki, Pracy i Polityki Społecznej, Warszawa.
  12. Hertel T.W., McDougall R.A., Narayanan B., Aguiar A.H. (2008), Behavioral Parameters, in: B.G. Narayanan, T.L. Walmsley (ed.), Global Trade, Assistance, and Production: The GTAP 7 Data Base, Center for Global Trade Analysis.
  13. IMF (2010), World Economic Outlook (WEO), Recovery, Risk, and Rebalancing, Washington.
  14. Klyuev V., Snudden S. (2011), Effects of Fiscal Consolidation in the Czech Republic, IMF Working Paper, WP/11/65, International Monetary Fund, Washington.
  15. Lambertini L., Tavares J. (2005), Exchange Rates and Fiscal Adjustments: Evidence from the OECD and Implications for EMU, The Berkeley Electronic Journal of Macroeconomics. 5, 5 (11).
  16. Lofgren H., Harris R.L., Robinson S. (2002), A standard computable general equilibrium (CGE) model in GAMS, International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington.
  17. OECD (2008), 2008 Economic Review Poland, OECD, Paris.
  18. OECD (2010), 2010 Economic Review Poland, OECD, Paris.
  19. Lewiatan (2010), Jak uzdrowić finanse publiczne w Polsce?, Polska Konfederacja Pracodawców Prywatnych, www.pkpplewiatan.com.pl/.../20100923_Finanse_Publiczne_13_09_2010.doc.
  20. Price R. (2010), The Political Economy Of Fiscal Consolidation, Economics Department Working Papers, 776, OECD, Paris.
  21. Robinson S. (2003), Macro Models and Multipliers: Leontief, Stone, Keynes, and CGE Models, International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington.
  22. Roeger W., in t'Veld J. (2010), Fiscal stimulus and exit strategies in the EU: a model-based analysis, Economic Papers, 426, European Commission.
  23. Roeger W., in t'Veld J., Vogel L. (2010), Fiscal consolidation in Germany, Intereconomics, 45 (6), 364-371.
  24. Rother P., Schuknecht L., Stark J. (2010), The benefits of fiscal consolidation in uncharted waters, Occasional Paper Series, 121, ECB, Frankfurt.
  25. Rzońca A., Ciżkowicz P. (2005), Non-Keynesian Effects of Fiscal Contraction in New Member States, Working Paper, 519, ECB, Frankfurt.
  26. Rzońca A., Wojciechowski W., Kalina L. (2010), Dokąd zmierzają finanse publiczne w Polsce, Forum Obywatelskiego Rozwoju, Warszawa.
  27. Strzelecki P. (2009), The analysis of the labour market flexibility in Poland in comparison to other EU countries on the basis of the results of Wage Dynamic Network survey, in: Raport na temat pełnego uczestnictwa Rzeczypospolitej Polskiej w trzecim etapie Unii Gospodarczej i Walutowej. Projekty badawcze. Cz. VI, NBP, Warszawa.
  28. Szeto K.L. (2002), A dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the New Zealand economy, New Zealand Treasury Working Paper, 02/07, Wellington.
  29. Turrini A. (2004), Public Investment and the EU Fiscal Framework, European Economy Economic Paper, 202, European Commission, Brussels.
  30. World Bank (2003), Toward a Fiscal Framework for Growth. A Public Expenditure and Institutional Review, Report No. 25033-POL.
  31. World Bank (2010), Poland. Public Expenditure Review, Report No. 52536-PL.
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ISSN
0137-5520
Język
eng
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