BazEkon - Biblioteka Główna Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego w Krakowie

BazEkon home page

Meny główne

Autor
Bystrov Victor (University of Lodz, Poland), Staszewska-Bystrova Anna (University of Lodz, Poland)
Tytuł
On the Power of Direct Tests for Rational Expectations Against the Alternative of Constant Gain Learning
Źródło
Bank i Kredyt, 2010, nr 6, s. 71-83, aneks, bibliogr. 25 poz.
Słowa kluczowe
Analiza makroekonomiczna, Teoria racjonalnych oczekiwań, Metoda Monte Carlo
Macroeconomic analysis, Rational expectations theory, Monte Carlo method
Uwagi
summ.
Abstrakt
In this paper we study the power of direct tests for rational expectations against the constant gain learning alternative. The investigation is by means of a Monte Carlo study. The tests considered use quantitative expectations data and qualitative survey data that has been quantified. The main finding is that the power of tests for rational expectations against constant gain learning may be very small, making it impossible to distinguish the hypotheses. (original abstract)
Dostępne w
Biblioteka Główna Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego w Krakowie
Biblioteka SGH im. Profesora Andrzeja Grodka
Biblioteka Główna Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego w Katowicach
Biblioteka Główna Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego w Poznaniu
Biblioteka Główna Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego we Wrocławiu
Pełny tekst
Pokaż
Bibliografia
Pokaż
  1. Batchelor R.A., Orr A.B. (1988), Inflation Expectations Revisited, Economica, 55 (219), 317-331.
  2. Berk J.M. (1999), Measuring inflation expectations: a survey data approach, Applied Economics, 31, 1467-1480.
  3. Berk J.M. (2002), Consumers' Inflation Expectations and Monetary Policy in Europe, Contemporary Economic Policy, 20 (2), 122-132.
  4. Branch W.A., Evans G.W. (2006), A simple recursive forecasting model, Economics Letters, 91, 158-166.
  5. Carlson J.A., Parkin J.M. (1975), Inflation expectations, Economica, 42, 123-138.
  6. Common M. (1985), Testing for rational expectations with qualitative survey data, Manchester School of Economic and Social Statistics, 53 (2), 138-148.
  7. Evans G.W., Honkapohja S. (2001), Learning and expectations in macroeconomics, Princeton University Press.
  8. Evans G.W., Honkapohja S. (2009), Learning and Macroeconomics, Annual Review of Economics, September, 1, 421-451.
  9. Forsells M., Kenny G. (2004), Survey expectations, rationality and the dynamics of Euro Area inflation, Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, 1, 13-41.
  10. Keane M.P., Runkle D.E. (1990), Testing the Rationality of Price Forecasts. New Evidence from Panel Forecasts, American Economic Review, 80 (4), 714-735.
  11. Lovell M.C. (1986), Tests of the Rational Expectations Hypothesis, American Economic Review, 76 (1), 110-124.
  12. Lucas Jr. R.E. (1973), Some International Evidence on Output-Inflation Tradeoffs, American Economic Review, 63 (3), 326-334.
  13. Łyziak T. (2003), Consumer Inflation Expectations in Poland, European Central Bank, Working Paper Series, 287.
  14. Muth J.A. (1961), Rational Expectations and the Theory of Price Movements, Econometrica, 29 (6), 315-335.
  15. Nardo M. (2003), The Quantification of Qualitative Survey Data: A Critical Assessment, Journal of Economic Surveys, 17 (5), 645-668.
  16. Orphanides A., Williams J.C. (2008), Learning, expectations formation and the pitfalls of optimal control monetary policy, Journal of Monetary Economics, October, 55 (Supplement), S80-S96.
  17. Osińska M. (2000), Ekonometryczne modelowanie oczekiwań gospodarczych, Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Mikołaja Kopernika w Toruniu.
  18. Pesaran M.H. (1984), Expectations formations and macroeconomic modelling, in: P. Malgrange, P.A. Muet (eds), Contemporary Macroeconomic Modelling, Basil Blackwell, Oxford.
  19. Pesaran M.H. (1987), Limits to Rational Expectations, Basil Blackwell, Oxford.
  20. Pesaran M.H., Weale M.R. (2006), Survey Expectations, in: Handbook of Economic Forecasting, vol. 1, Elsevier.
  21. Sargent T.J. (1999), The Conquest of American Inflation, Princeton University Press.
  22. Seitz H. (1988), The estimation of inflation forecasts from business survey data, Applied Economics, 20, 427-438.
  23. Smith J., McAleer M. (1995), Alternative procedures for converting qualitative response data to quantitative expectations: an application to Australian manufacturing, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 10, 165-185.
  24. Tomczyk E. (2004), Racjonalność oczekiwań. Metody i analiza danych jakościowych, Monografie i Opracowania, 529, SGH, Warszawa.
  25. Zarnowitz V. (1985), Rational Expectations and Macroeconomic Forecasts, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 3, 293-311.
Cytowane przez
Pokaż
ISSN
0137-5520
Język
eng
Udostępnij na Facebooku Udostępnij na Twitterze Udostępnij na Google+ Udostępnij na Pinterest Udostępnij na LinkedIn Wyślij znajomemu