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Autor
Caballero Rafael (University of Malaga, Spain), Lopera Francisca Garcia (University of Malaga, Spain), Jose Enrique Padilla Garcia (University of Malaga, Spain), Fatima Perez (University of Malaga, Spain)
Tytuł
Default Prediction for Various National Economies through Synthetic Indicators
Źródło
Multiple Criteria Decision Making / University of Economics in Katowice, 2012, vol. 7, s. 38-58, bibliogr. 13
Słowa kluczowe
Gospodarka narodowa, Kryzys finansowy państwa, Wskaźniki makroekonomiczne, Swap ryzyka kredytowego
National economy, State financial crisis, Macroeconomic indicators, Credit default swap (CDS)
Uwagi
Korespondencja z redakcją: numeracja wpisana za zgodą redakcji (wynika z ciągłości wydawniczej serii MCDM) - brak numeracji na stronie tytułowej
Abstrakt
In the current situation, involving a global economic crisis, national economies are under a high pressure. Greek and Irish bailouts have prompted many people to wonder about the economic situation in other countries. The global crisis is causing First World countries need help from institutions such as the IMF or the ECB. The goal of this paper is to analyze the risk that these countries have to be rescued by the economic institutions. In order to prepare this ranking, we are going to use two synthetic indicators. The first one is called Distance Principal Components (DPC) and the other one Goal Programming Synthetic Indicator (GPSI). We develop this indicator taking into account variables from both the public economy and the financial markets. Concerning the public economy, we use variables such as the public debt ratio and its total amount (% of GDP), public revenues, public deficit, real GDP growth and unemployment rate. We strongly believe that the soundness of an economy in the long-term depends on the behavior of these variables. Therefore, if they show a positive trend, other variables exposed to speculation in the financial markets should present a proper behavior as well. With this we mean two variables negotiated in the markets: debt risk premium and credit default swap levels. This paper will bring easily understandable results that will let us know what the bankruptcy situation is in the rest of the countries analyzed (original abstract)
Dostępne w
Biblioteka Główna Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego w Krakowie
Biblioteka Szkoły Głównej Handlowej w Warszawie
Biblioteka Główna Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego w Katowicach
Biblioteka Główna Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego w Poznaniu
Biblioteka Główna Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego we Wrocławiu
Pełny tekst
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Bibliografia
Pokaż
  1. Blancas F.J., Caballero R., González M., Lozano-Oyola M., Pérez F. (2010a), Goal Programming Synthetic Indicators: An Application for Sustainable Tourism in Andalusian Coastal Counties, "Ecological Economics", No. 69.
  2. Blancas F.J., González M., Lozano-Oyola M., Pérez F. (2010b), The Assessment of a Sustainable Tourism: Application to Spanish Coastal Destinations, "Ecological Indicators", No. 10.
  3. Bloomberg, www.bloomberg.com
  4. Cechetti S., Zampolli F. (2010), The Future of Public Debt: Prospects and Implications, ISSN 1020-0959 (print) ISBN 1682-7678 (online).
  5. Chen C.J., Fu X.F., Ma X.W. (2004), Research on Sustainable Development with Regards to the Economic System and the Energy System in Mainland China, "International Journal of Global Energy", No. 22.
  6. CMA database, www.cmavision.com
  7. Diaz-Balteiro L., Romero C., (2004a), In Search of a Natural Systems Sustainability Index, "Ecol. Econ.", No. 49.
  8. Diaz-Balteiro L., Romero C., (2004b), Sustainability of Forest Management Plans: A Discrete Goal Programming Approach, "J. Environ. Manage." No. 71.
  9. Eurostat (2010), Euroarea and EU27 Government Deficit at 6.3% and 6.8% of GDP Respectively, Eurostat new release indicators.
  10. Kan Y.H. and Pedersen, C. (2011), The Impact of Margin Interest on the Evaluation of Credit Default Swaps, Working Paper, University o Columbia
  11. Markit Index, http://indices.markit.com/default.asp
  12. Nardo M., Saisana M., Saltelli A., Tarantola, S., Hoffman, A., Giovannini, E. (2008), Handbook on Constructing Composite Indicators: Methodology and User Guide, OECD Statistics Working Papers.
  13. Trading economics, www.tradingeconomics.com
Cytowane przez
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ISSN
2084-1531
Język
eng
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