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Autor
Florczak Waldemar (Uniwersytet Łódzki)
Tytuł
Makroekonomiczne uwarunkowania płodności w Polsce. Próba kwantyfikacji
Macroeconomic Determinants of Fertility in Poland: an Attempt at Quantification
Źródło
Studia Demograficzne, 2008, nr 1-2(153-154), s. 82-111, tab., bibliogr. 73 poz.
Słowa kluczowe
Płodność, Uwarunkowania makroekonomiczne, Modele ekonometryczne
Fertility, Macroeconomic conditions, Econometric models
Uwagi
summ.
Abstrakt
Celem niniejszego artykułu jest próba kwantyfikacji wpływu uwarunkowań społeczno-ekonomicznych i demograficznych na zagregowaną płodność, wyrażoną za pomocą współczynnika dzietności teoretycznej (total fertility rate, TFR) w Polsce w latach 1970-2005, przy użyciu modelu ekonometrycznego, a docelowo wykorzystanie takiego modelu do prognozowania liczby urodzeń dla Polski (...). (fragment tekstu)

In the paper, an attempt to quantify interrelationships between the period total fertility rate in Poland in the years 1970-2005 and socio-economic determinants has been undertaken. In that respect, several possible explanatory variables suggested in various theoretical explanations of the fertility decline have been referred to. The overview of the theories resulted in the list of potential variables to be included into a linear model with the TFR as a dependent variable. Data availability defines the final set of 20 potential explanatory variables to be used in the model. Due to the presence of strong multicollinearity, a stepwise regression was applied. That method was supplemented by economic monitoring to ensure a sound interpretability of outcomes. Consequently, the final model included only four variables that influenced on the total fertility rate in Poland over the period under study: inertia in fertility, real wages, one variable related to social inequality and one linked to the pension system (i.e. to the replacement rate and the coverage rate ). The final model exhibits desirable statistical and economic features, and has been used for some projection exercises. (original abstract)
Dostępne w
Biblioteka Główna Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego w Krakowie
Biblioteka Szkoły Głównej Handlowej w Warszawie
Biblioteka Główna Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego w Katowicach
Biblioteka Główna Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego w Poznaniu
Biblioteka Główna Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego we Wrocławiu
Bibliografia
Pokaż
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Cytowane przez
Pokaż
ISSN
0039-3134
Język
pol
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