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Autor
Al Zararee Abdulnafea (Philadeplhia University, Jordan), Gharaibeh Mayes (Philadeplhia University, Jordan)
Tytuł
The Role of Financial Ratios in Building Bank Failure Anticipation Model
Źródło
Zeszyty Naukowe Uniwersytetu Szczecińskiego. Finanse, Rynki Finansowe, Ubezpieczenia, 2009, nr 17, s. 385-404, rys., tab., bibliogr. 28 poz.
Słowa kluczowe
Wskaźniki finansowe, Modele prognostyczne, Upadłość banku, Banki
Financial indicators, Forecasting models, Bank bankruptcy, Banks
Uwagi
streszcz., summ..
Kraj/Region
Jordania
Jordan
Abstrakt
Bank failure is the major challenge for central bank and market regulators. The main focus is modeling bank failure: measurement bank failure. Much Research has focused on bank failure because of an increase in the incidence of bank crisis. This paper examines the adequate of financial ratios to provide early warning signal for bank failure on the basis of financial statements. The idea is to compare failed and nonfailed banks. A sam ple has been drawn from the Jordanian banking sector based on certain criteria that the bank should be licensed by central bank of Jordan (CBJ), financial statements of failed banks shall be available for five years prior to revoke license date, and nonfailed banks shall have financial statements, without gap during the period 2000-2004. This paper intends to find the predictive power of two model, the non parametric approach of Trait Recognition and Du Pont ROI model as instrument of financial control, in providing an early warning for revealing potential financial difficulties that may lead to failure. The paper found that the Trait Recognition approach performs well in terms of classification accuracy in the nonfailed banks with rate of 100%, but the classification accuracy in the failed bank was 83%for holdout sample. As well, the motivated Trait Recognition approach is accurate in classification between failed and nonfailed banks, the accuracy in the nonfailed banks is 100% and also in failed banks is 100%. The Du Pont ROI approach illustrates the financial performance of the nonfailed and failed banks, where the ROI of nonfailed bank was positive but the failed bank was negative. (original abstract)
Dostępne w
Biblioteka Szkoły Głównej Handlowej w Warszawie
Biblioteka Główna Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego w Katowicach
Biblioteka Główna Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego w Poznaniu
Biblioteka Główna Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego we Wrocławiu
Biblioteka Główna Uniwersytetu Szczecińskiego
Bibliografia
Pokaż
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  3. Joseph F. Sinkey, Jr. (1998). "Commercial Bank Financial Management", 5th Edition, Prentice Hall. New Jersey.
  4. Peler, J. Huber (1981). "Robust Statistics", New York, Wiley.
  5. Wild, John; Subramanyam, K.R.; and Halsly, Robert (2004). "Financial Management Analysis", 8th Edition, McGraw-Hill.
  6. Altman, E.I. (1968)," Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis and the Prediction of Corporate Bankruptcy" Journal of Finance, (September 1968), pp. 589-609.
  7. Beaver .W, (1966)."Financial Ratios as Prediction of Failure", Journal of Accounting Research (Supplemented), pp. 71-111.
  8. Blum, M. (1974). "Failing Company Discriminant Analysis", Journal of Accounting Research, (1974), pp. 1-25.
  9. Deakin, E.B. (1972), "Discriminant Analysis of Predictors of Financial failure", Journal of Accounting Research (Spring 1972), pp.167-179.
  10. Dietrich, J. Richard. (1984). "Discussion of Methodological Issues Related to the Estimation of Financial Distress Prediction Models", Journal of Accounting Research, (1984), Vol. 22, pp. 83¬86.
  11. Kogan, Micheal, (2002), "How To Detect and Solve a Company's Financial Distress", Commercial Law Bulletin, 2002.
  12. Kolari, J., Caputo M., and Wagner D. (1996). "Trait Recognition: an Alternative Approach to Early Warning Systems in Commercial Banking", Journal of Business Finance and Accounting, (1996), Vol23, pp. 1415-1434.
  13. Kolari, James, Glennon.Dennis, Shin, Hwan and Caputo, Michele, (2002), "Predicting Large US Commercial Bank Failures", Journal of Economics and Business, (2002), Vol. 54, pp. 361-387.
  14. Laitinen, Erkki and Laitinen, Teija (2000)" Bankruptcy prediction Application of the Taylor's Expansion in Logistic Regression", International Review Analysis, (2000), Vol. 9, pp. 327-349.
  15. Lanine, Gleb; and Vannet, Rudi (2005). "Failure Prediction in the Russian Bank Sector with Logit and Trait Recognition Models", Ghent University, Belgium, (2005).
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  20. Sarkar, Sumit and Sriram, Ram, (2001), "Bayesian Models for Early Warning of Bank Failures'', Management Science, November (2001), Vol.47, No.11, pp. 1457-1475.
  21. Shirata, C. (1998), "Financial Ratios as predictions of bankruptcy in Japan: An Empirical Research ", Proceeding of the second Asian Pacific Interdisciplinary Research in Accounting conference, (1998), pp. 437-445.
  22. Sinkey, Joseph (1975). "A Multivariate Statistical Analysis of the Characteristics of Problem Banks", Journal of Finance, March (1975), Vol.30, issue 1, pp. 21-36.
  23. Suwaidan, M. (2003), "The Ratio Models versus The Cash flow Model, and The Prediction of Bankruptcy: An Empirical Examination", Abhath Al- Yarmouk, (2003), Vol.19, pp. 89-104.
  24. Taffler, R.J. (1982), "Forecasting Company Failure in the UK Using Discriminant Analysis and Financial Ratio Data" Journal of Royal Statistical Society Series A (1982), pp. 342- 358.
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  28. www.ase.com/.
Cytowane przez
Pokaż
ISSN
1640-6818
1733-2842
Język
eng
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