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Autor
Belej Mirosław (University of Warmia and Mazury in Olsztyn, Poland), Kulesza Sławomir (University of Warmia and Mazury in Olsztyn, Poland)
Tytuł
Similarities in Time-Series of Housing Prices on Local Markets in Poland
Źródło
Real Estate Management and Valuation, 2014, vol. 22, iss. 3, s. 45-53, wykr., tab., bibliogr. 16 poz.
Słowa kluczowe
Mieszkalnictwo, Rynek nieruchomości, Ceny nieruchomości, Mieszkania
Housing, Real estate market, Real estate prices, Dwellings
Uwagi
summ.
Kraj/Region
Warszawa, Białystok, Kraków, Poznań, Gdańsk
Warsaw, Bialystok, Cracow, Poznan, Gdansk
Abstrakt
This study examined similarities between local real estate markets in Poland from 2006 - 2013 by analyzing changes in housing prices. The analyses covered five cities - all of which are major centers of their regions: Warsaw (Mazovia - the center of Poland), Bialystok (Podlasie - the east of Poland), Cracow (Malopolska - the south of Poland), Poznan (Wielkopolska - the west of Poland) and Gdansk (Pomerania - the north of Poland). The time period was chosen so that it covered an interval of rapid changes in real estate prices (a housing bubble) and their subsequent relaxation to the equilibrium state. Firstly, a multi-dimensional analysis which took into account the Chebyshev distance was employed. This helped to conduct an analysis of the correlation of price changes over time, which revealed their concurrence and, moreover, showed specific propagation delays to external stimuli, and hence could be a measure of the market's inertia. The degree of integration of the local markets under study changed only slightly over time; therefore, a thesis can be put forth in regard to the interrelation of local real estate markets, imagined as a system of communicating vessels. In the second stage, the damped harmonic oscillator model was employed to describe the observed evolution of real estate prices. This study exhibited high inertia in real estate markets, manifested during rapid structural changes in the system's state occurring in conditions far from equilibrium. In long-term evolution, the pace of change is slow enough for the systems to remain close to equilibrium.(original abstract)
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Bibliografia
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  2. BELNIAK S., GŁUSZAK M., 2011, Uwarunkowania i zróżnicowania lokalnych rynków mieszkaniowych w Polsce. Stan i tendencje rozwoju rynku nieruchomości (Determinants and diversification of the local housing markets in Poland. Condition and trends in the development of real estate market), Zeszyty naukowe 192. Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego w Poznaniu, Poznań.
  3. BELNIAK, S. 2001. Rozwój rynku nieruchomości w Polsce (Real estate development in Poland), Wydawnictwo Akademii Ekonomicznej, Poznań.
  4. BRZEZICKA J., WISNIEWSKI R., 2013, Ekonomia behawioralna a rynek nieruchomości - teoria i praktyka (Behavioural economics and real estate market - theory and practice), Psychologia ekonomiczna, No. 3, pp. 6-19.
  5. CAMPBELL J.Y., COCCO J., 2003. Household Risk Management and Optimal Mortgage Choice. Quarterly Journal of Economics 118(4), 1449-1494.
  6. DITTMAN I., 2012, Lokalne rynki mieszkaniowe w Polsce - podobieństwo pod względem zmian cen transakcyjnych oraz dostępności mieszkań (Local housing markets in Poland - the similarity in terms of changes in transaction prices and availability of housing), Studia i Materiały Towarzystwa Naukowego Nieruchomości, vol. 20, No. 1, pp 71-90.
  7. DITTMANN I., 2013, Primary and secondary residential real estate markets in Poland - analogies in offer and transaction price development, Real Estate Management and Valuation, vol. 21, no. 1, pp. 39-48.
  8. DOMAŃSKI R., 2008, Gospodarka przestrzenna (Spatial economy), Wydawnictwo Naukowe PWN, Warszawa.
  9. FORYŚ I., 2011, Społeczno-gospodarcze determinanty rozwoju rynku mieszkaniowego w Polsce (Socio-economic determinants of the development of the housing market in Poland), Wydawnictwo Naukowe Uniwersytetu Szczecińskiego, Szczecin.
  10. HECKMAN J., 2008. Econometric Causality. International Statistical Review, 76(1), 1-27.
  11. KAŁKOWSKI L, 2003, Rynek nieruchomości w Polsce (Real estate market in Poland), Wydawnictwo Twigger, Warszawa.
  12. KRAJEWSKA M., 2013, The problem of real estate research area selection for the purpose of appraisal process, Real Estate Management and Valuation, vol. 21, no. 3, pp. 25-34.
  13. MCPEAKE J., 1998, Religion and Residential Search Behaviour in the Belfast Urban Area, Housing Studies, Vol. 13, No. 4, pp. 527-548.
  14. MIAN A., SUFI A., 2009. The Consequences of Mortgage Credit Expansion: Evidence from the 2007 Mortgage Crisis. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 124(4), 1449-96.
  15. SCANLON K., WHITEHEAD C., 2011. The UK mortgage market: responding to volatility. Journal of Housing and the Built Environment. 26: 277-293.
  16. TROJANEK R., 2008, Wahania cen na rynku mieszkaniowym (Fluctuations in the housing market), Wydawnictwo Akademii Ekonomicznej, Poznań.
Cytowane przez
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ISSN
2300-5289
Język
eng
URI / DOI
http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/remav-2014-0026
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