BazEkon - Biblioteka Główna Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego w Krakowie

BazEkon home page

Meny główne

Autor
Miečinskienė Algita (Vilnius Gediminas Technical University, Lithuania), Lapinskaitė Indrė (Vilnius Gediminas Technical University, Lithuania)
Tytuł
The Research on the Impact of the Changes of Commodity Price Level in the World Commodity Exchanges on Variation of General Price Level
Źródło
Economics & Sociology, 2014, vol. 7, nr 4, s. 71-88, rys., tab., bibliogr. 59 poz.
Słowa kluczowe
Zmienność poziomu cen, Inflacja, Ceny towarów, Obrót towarowy
Price level variability, Inflation, Commodity price, Commodity turnover
Uwagi
summ.
Kraj/Region
Litwa
Lithuania
Abstrakt
The purpose of the paper is to investigate the influence of changes of commodity price level in the world commodity exchanges on variation of general price level index in Lithuania. Object of the research is commodity price level in the world commodity exchanges. The methodology applied is following: study of the recent scientific literature, collection and analysis of statistical data, correlation regression analysis. The conclusion can be made that variation of general price level in Lithuania depends on changes of commodity prices in world commodity exchanges, mostly from the prices of aluminium, cocoa, coal and oil. Regression function made with analysed commodities is adequate to real situation and chosen variables X explain the 64% of inflation variability and 36% are explained by other factors. The results show that the determinate regression function could be practically used to forecast the dependence of inflation rate on the particular factors. (original abstract)
Pełny tekst
Pokaż
Bibliografia
Pokaż
  1. ABC (2007), Overseas demand helps raise wool prices, available online at: http://www.abc.net.au/cgibin/common/printfriendly.pl?/news/australia/tas/northtas/200701/s1825847.htm, referred on 05/05/2014.
  2. ABC news (2014), Report on China's economy lifts copper prices, available online at: http://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/report-chinas-economy-lifts-copper-prices-23962726, referred on 02/06/2014.
  3. Akram, Q. F. (2009), Commodity prices, interest rates and the dollar, Energy Economics, Vol. 31, No 6, pp. 838-851.
  4. Awokuse, T. and J. Yang (2003), The Informational Role of Commodity Prices in Formulating Monetary Policy: A Reexamination, Economics Letters, Elsevier, Vol. 79, No 2, pp. 219-224.
  5. Bloomberg (2014), Global Sugar Surplus Seen by Green Pool Falling 70% in 2014-15, available online at: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-02-06/global-sugar-surplusseen-by-green-pool-falling-70-in-2014-15.html, referred on 25/05/2014.
  6. Bloomberg, S. B., Harris, E. S. (1995), The commodity-consumer prices connection: fact or fable? Fed Reserve Bank N.Y. Econ. Rev., pp. 21-38.
  7. Browne, F., Cronin, D. (2010), Commodity prices, money and inflation, Journal of Economics and Business, Vol. 62, No 4, pp. 331-345.
  8. Cashin, P., Liang, H., McDermott, J. C. (1999), How Persistent Are Shocks to World Commodity Prices? IMF Working paper WP/99/80 and forthcoming IMF Staff Papers, pp. 1-54.
  9. Cashin, P., McDermott, C. J., Scott, A. (2002), Booms and Slumps in World Commodity Prices, Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 69, pp. 277-296.
  10. Ciner, C. (2011), Commodity prices and inflation: Testing in the frequency domain, Research in International Business and Finance, Vol. 25, No. 3, pp. 229-237.
  11. Cotton futures reach five-year high (2010), Rural News, available online at: http://www.abc.net.au/rural/news/stories/s969351.htm, referred on 28/05/2014.
  12. Deaton, A., Laroque, G. (1992), On the Behaviour of commodity prices, Review of Economic Studies, Vol. 59, pp. 1-25.
  13. Deaton, A. (1999), Commodity prices and growth in Africa, The Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 13, No. 3, pp. 23-40.
  14. Dudzinski, J. (2010), Financial investors in international raw materials and food markets and price movements of those commodities, Economics and Sociology, Vol. 3, No. 1, pp. 25-33.
  15. Financial Times (2014), US oil Price Hits 2014 High Above 100$, available online at: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/5bb450f6-9281-11e3-9e43-00144feab7de.html#axzz33qo5pU85, referred on 05/06/2014.
  16. Furlong, F., Ingenito, R. (1996), Commodity prices and inflation. Fed. Reserve Bank San Francisco Econ. Rev., Vol. 2, pp. 27-46.
  17. Garner, A. C. (1989), Commodity prices: policy target or information variables? Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol. 21, No. 4, pp. 508-514.
  18. Gerdesmeier, D. (2009), Stability of Prices: Why is that importantly for you? Europe Central Bank. Frankfurt am Main.
  19. Ghoshray, A., Kejriwal, M. and Wohar, M. E. (2014), Breaks, trends and unit roots in commodity prices: a robust investigation, Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, Vol. 18, No. 1, pp. 23-40.
  20. Gorton, G., Rouwenhorst, K. G. (2006), Facts and fantasies about commodity futures, Finance Analysts, Vol. 62, pp. 47-68.
  21. Grilli, E., Yang, M. C. (1988), Primary commodity prices, manufactured goods prices and the terms of trade in developing countries, World Bank Economic Review, Vol. 2, pp. 1-47.
  22. Index Mundi (1014a), Coffee, Other Mild Arabicas, available online at: http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=other-mild-arabicascoffee&months=60, referred on 04/06/2014.
  23. Index Mundi (1014b), Cocoa beans, available online at: http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=cocoa-beans&months=60, referred on 04/06/2014.
  24. Index Mundi (1014c), Sugar, available online at: http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=sugar&months=60, referred on 04/06/2014.
  25. Index Mundi (1014e), Maize (corn), available online at: http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=corn&months=60, referred on 04/06/2014.
  26. Index Mundi (1014f), Cotton, available online at: http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=cotton&months=60, referred on 04/06/2014.
  27. Index Mundi (1014g), Wool, available online at: http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=coarse-wool&months=60, referred on 04/06/2014.
  28. Index Mundi (1014h), Aluminum, available online at: http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=aluminum&months=60, referred on 04/06/2014.
  29. Index Mundi (1014i), Copper, available online at: http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=copper&months=60, referred on 04/06/2014.
  30. Index Mundi (1014j), Natural Gas, available online at: http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=natural-gas&months=60, referred on 04/06/2014.
  31. Index Mundi (1014k), Coal, available online at: http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=coal-australian&months=60, referred on 04/06/2014.
  32. Index Mundi (1014l), Crude Oil (petroleum), available online at: http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=crude-oil&months=60, referred on 04/06/2014.
  33. Index Mundi (1014m), Lithuania Imports - commodities, available online at: http://www.indexmundi.com/lithuania/imports_commodities.html, referred on 17/10/2014.
  34. International coffee organization (2014), Historical Data, available online at: http://www.ico.org/new_historical.asp, referred on 25/05/2014.
  35. Koyfman, A. (2009), Aluminum Price Outlook, available online at: http://www.wealthdaily.com/articles/aluminum-price-outlook/2111, referred on 29/05/2014.
  36. Kyrtsou, C., Labys, W. C. (2006), Evidence for chaotic dependence between US inflation and commodity prices, Journal of Macroeconomics, Vol. 28, No. 1, pp. 256-266.
  37. Lithuanian Economic Review 2014 (2014), available online at: https://www.lb.lt/lithuanian_economic_review_may_2014#page=15, referred on 14/10/2014.
  38. Mahdavi, S., Zhou, S. (1997), Gold and Commodity Prices as Leading Indicators of Inflation: Tests of Long-Run Relationship and Predictive Performance, Journal of Economics and Business, Vol. 49, pp. 475-489.
  39. Malliaris, A. G. (2006), US inflation and commodity prices: Analytical and empirical Issues, Journal of Macroeconomics, Vol. 28, No. 1, pp. 267-271.
  40. Marquis, M. H., Cunningham, S. R. (1990), Is there a role for commodity prices in the design of monetary policy? Some empirical evidence, Southern Economy, Vol. 57, pp. 169-209.
  41. Meat trade news Daily (2014), Vietnam - Farmers chop down coffee plants as coffee prices drop, available online at: http://www.meattradenewsdaily.co.uk/news/100310/vietnam___farmers_chop_down_coffee_plants_as_coffee_prices_drop.aspx, referred on 23/05/2014.
  42. Miečinskienė, A., Ževžikova, O. (2008), Price level changes of the key consumption product groups, in 5th international scientific conference "Business and management' 2008": selected papers. Vilnius, Lithuania, pp. 199-205.
  43. Nausėda, G. (1994), Pajamų politika ir ekonomikos stabilizavimas. Vilnius: Alma Litera.
  44. Official Statistics Portal (2014), CPI-based consumer price changes, available online at: http://osp.stat.gov.lt/en/temines-lenteles38, referred on 25/05/2014.
  45. Pindyck, R. S., Rotemberg, J. J. (1990), The Excess Co-Movement of Commodity Prices, Economic Journal, Vol. 100, pp. 1173-1187.
  46. Pranulis, V. et al. (1999), Marketingas, Vilnius: Eugrimas.
  47. Reuters (2008), Copper price volatility seen high in 2008/09 - CPM, available online at: http://www.reuters.com/article/2008/05/10/copper-conferenceidUSN1065788520080510, referred on 02/06/2014.
  48. Reuters (2014), Thermal coal prices to drop further on oversupply, weak demand, available online at: http://in.reuters.com/article/2014/03/20/energy-coal-pricesidINL6N0MH30Y20140320, referred on 02/06/2014.
  49. Simanavičienė, Ž. (2002), Verslo priežiūros institucijos. Kaunas: Technologija.
  50. Snieška, V. et al. (2006), Makroekonomika: Vadovėlis aukštųjų mokyklų studentams, Kaunas, Technologija.
  51. Spring Flooding Brings Highest Corn Prices Ever (2008), Chemically Green, available online at: http://chemicallygreen.com/high-corn-prices.
  52. The Wall Street Journal (2010), Cotton Tale: Apparel Prices Set to Rise, available online at: http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052748704912004575252500019032346, referred on 05/05/2014.
  53. The Wall Street Journal (2013), Cotton Price Rises on Crop Size, Quality Concerns, available online at: http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304795804579101541279731508, referred on 05/05/2014.
  54. Verheyen, F. (2010), Monetary policy, commodity prices and inflation: Empirical evidence from the US, Ruhr Economic Papers #216, available online at: https://www.econstor.eu/dspace/bitstream/10419/45303/1/655732020.pdf.
  55. Why Do Natural Gas Rates Change? (2010), Public Service Commission of Wisconsin, available online at: http://psc.wi.gov/consumerinfo/faq%27s/gas/gasPriceChanges.htm, referred on 28/05/2014.
  56. Wool prices continue to rise (2010), The National Business, available online at: http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/wool-prices-continue-rise-118028, referred on 28/05/2014.
  57. Wool prices drop sharply at opening sale (2008), Fibre2fashion, available online at: http://www.fibre2fashion.com/news/fashionnews/newsdetails.aspx?news_id=61885&page=1.
  58. Yahoo finance (2014a), Coffee Prices Continue to Fall as a Result of Increased Supply - ICO Raises 2011/2012 Production Estimate, available online at: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/coffee-prices-continue-fall-result-012529258.html, referred on 25/05/2014.
  59. Yahoo finance (2014b), Cotton prices drop on tepid demand, supply glut, available online at: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/cotton-prices-drop-tepid-demand-194412500.html, referred on 25/05/2014.
Cytowane przez
Pokaż
ISSN
2071-789X
Język
eng
URI / DOI
http://dx.doi.org/10.14254/2071-789X.2014/7-4/5
Udostępnij na Facebooku Udostępnij na Twitterze Udostępnij na Google+ Udostępnij na Pinterest Udostępnij na LinkedIn Wyślij znajomemu