BazEkon - Biblioteka Główna Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego w Krakowie

BazEkon home page

Meny główne

Zakaria Muhammad (Shanghai University of Finance and Economics (SHUFE), P.R. China, COMSATS Institute of Information Technology (CIIT), Islamabad, Pakistan), Junyang Xi (Shanghai University of Finance and Economics (SHUFE), P.R. China)
The Cyclicality of Fiscal Policy in South Asia
Argumenta Oeconomica, 2015, nr 1 (34), s. 33-60, rys., tab., bibliogr. 39 poz.
Słowa kluczowe
Polityka fiskalna
Fiscal policy
The paper empirically analyses the role of macroeconomic, political and institutional variables in determining cyclical patterns of government revenues, expenditures and fiscal balance in South Asian Countries (SACs). Panel regression analysis is conducted for the period 1980 to 2013. The findings support existing literature about developing countries demonstrating that fiscal policies are strongly procyclical in SACs and there is significant evidence of persistence. Revenues have decreased and expenditures have increased with output cycle which has deteriorated the fiscal balance. This indicates that fiscal balance is procyclical with output cycle in SACs and this procyclicality increases during good times. The results suggest that SACs can conduct counter cyclical fiscal policies if they stabilize output, control inflation and structural shocks, have deep financial markets, high financial openness, have few veto players in the political procedures and have stronger institutions. These results are robust to alternative measures of output cycle and model specifications.(original abstract)
Dostępne w
Biblioteka Główna Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego w Krakowie
Biblioteka Szkoły Głównej Handlowej w Warszawie
Biblioteka Główna Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego w Katowicach
Biblioteka Główna Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego w Poznaniu
Biblioteka Główna Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego we Wrocławiu
  1. Alesina, A., F. R., Campante, G., Tabellini, Why is Fiscal Policy Often Procyclical?, "Journal of the European Economic Association", 6(5), pp.1006-1036, 2008.
  2. Badinger, H., Cyclical Fiscal Policy, Output Volatility, and Economic Growth, "Working Paper" No. 2268, CESifo, 2008.
  3. Barro, R. J.,On the Determination of the Public Debt, "Journal of Political Economy", 87, pp. 940-971, 1979.
  4. Baxter, M., R. G., King, Fiscal Policy in General Equilibrium, "American Economic Review", 83, pp. 315-334, 1993.
  5. Bogdanov, B., Cyclicality of Fiscal Policy over the Business Cycle: An Empirical Study on Developed and Developing Countries, Working Paper No. 1, Agency for Economic Analysis and Forecasting, Sofia, 2010.
  6. Braun, M., Why is Fiscal Policy Procyclical in Developing Countries?, CIPPEC, Manuscript, May 2001.
  7. Buiter, W. H. (1999), The Fallacy of the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level, Working Paper No. 7302, NBER
  8. Bulir, A., Hamann, A., Volatility of Development Aid: From the Frying Pan into the Fire?, "World Development", 36(10), pp. 2048-2066, 2008.
  9. Caballero, R., Krishnamurthy, A., Fiscal Policy and Financial Depth, Working Paper No. 10532, NBER, 2004.
  10. Calderon, C., Schmidt-Hebbel, K., Business Cycles and Fiscal Policies: The Role of Institutions and Financial Markets, Working Paper No. 481, Central Bank of Chile, 2008.
  11. Catao, L. A., Sutton, W., B., Sovereign Defaults: The Role of Volatility, Working Paper No. 149, IMF, 2002.
  12. Chinn, M., Ito, H., A New Measure of Financial Openness, "Journal of Comparative Policy Analysis", 10(3), pp. 309-22, 2008.
  13. Christiano, L., Eichenbaum, M., Rebelo, S., When is the Government Spending Multiplier Large?, "Journal of Political Economy", 119, pp. 78-121, 2011.
  14. Endegnanew, Y., The Cyclicality of Fiscal Policy in Good and Bad Times, Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona, 2013.
  15. Fatas, A., Mihov, I., Fiscal Policy and Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation, "Moneda y Credito", 212, pp. 167-210, 2001.
  16. Fiorito, R., Stylized Facts of Government Finance in the G7, Working Paper No.142, IMF, 1997.
  17. Fiorito R., Kollintzas, T., Stylized Facts of Business Cycles in the G7 from a Real Business Cycle Perspective, "European Economic Review", 38(2), pp. 235-269, 1994.
  18. Frankel, J., Vegh, C., Vuletin, G., On Graduation from Fiscal Procyclicality, Working Paper No. 17691, NBER, 2011.
  19. Gali, J., Government Size and Macroeconomic Stability, "European Economic Review", 38(1), pp. 117-132, 1994.
  20. Gali, J., Perotti, R., Fiscal Policy and Monetary Integration in Europe, "Economic Policy", 18(37), pp. 533-572, 2003.
  21. Gavin, M., Perotti, R., Fiscal Policy in Latin America [in:] Bernanke, B., Rotemberg, J. (eds.), NBER Macroeconomics Annual. MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, 1997.
  22. Gavin, M., Hausmann, R. Perotti, R., Talvi, E., Managing Fiscal Policy in Latin America and the Caribbean: Volatility, Procyclicality, and Limited Creditworthiness, Working Paper No. 326, Inter-American Development Bank, 1996.
  23. Hercowitz, Z., Strawczynski, M., Cyclical Ratcheting in Government Spending: Evidence from the OECD, Review of Economics and Statistics, 86, pp. 353-361, 2004.
  24. Hussain, T., Siddiqi, W. M., Fiscal Policy, Institutions and Governance in Selected South Asian Countries, "Pakistan Journal of Commerce and Social Sciences", 7 (2), pp. 331- -345, 2013.
  25. Ilzetzki, E., Vegh, A. C., Procyclical Fiscal Policy in Developing Countries: Truth or Fiction?, NBER Working Paper 14191, Cambridge, MA, 2008.
  26. IMF, Cyclicality of Fiscal Policy and Cyclically Adjusted Fiscal Balances, Working Paper No. 393, IMF, 2005.
  27. Jaimovich, D., Panizza, U., Procyclicality or Reverse Causality, Working Paper No. 599, Inter-American Development Bank, USA, 2007.
  28. Kaminsky, G., Reinhart, C. Vegh, C., When it Rains it Pours: Procyclical Capital Flows and Macroeconomic Policies [in:] Gertler, M., Rogoff, K., (eds.), NBER Macroeconomic Annual 19, pp.11-82. MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, 2004.
  29. Lane, P. R.,On the Cyclicality of Irish Fiscal Policy, "Economic and Social Review", 29, pp. 1-17, 1998.
  30. Lane, P. R., The Cyclical Behaviour of Fiscal Policy: Evidence from the OECD, "Journal of Public Economics", 87(12), pp. 2661-2675, 2003.
  31. Leeper, E. M., Equilibria under 'Active' and 'Passive' Monetary and Fiscal Policies, "Journal of Monetary Economics", 27(1), pp. 129-147, 1991.
  32. Manasse, P., Procyclical Fiscal Policy: Shocks, Rules, and Institutions - A View from MARS, Working Paper No. 27, IMF, 2006.
  33. Marshall, M. G., Jaggers, K., Polity IV Project: Dataset Users' Manual. Polity IV Project, Arlington, 2009.
  34. Pallage, S., Robe, M., Foreign Aid and the Business Cycle, "Review of International Economics", 9(4), pp. 641-672, 2001.
  35. Stein, E., Talvi, E., Gristani, A., Institutional Arrangements and Fiscal Performance: the Latin American Experience [in:] J.M.Poterba, M., J., Hagen, von J. (eds.), Fiscal Institutions and Fiscal Performance, pp. 103-134. University of Chicago Press, 1999.-
  36. Talvi, E., Vegh, A. C., Tax Base Variability and Procyclical Fiscal Policy in Developing Countries, "Journal of Development Economics", 78(1), pp. 156-190, 2005.
  37. Tornell, A., Lane, P., Voracity and Growth, "American Economic Review", 89, pp. 22-46, 1999.
  38. Woo, J., Economic, Political and Institutional Determinants of Public Deficits, "Journal of Public Economics", 87, pp. 387-426, 2003.
  39. Woodford, M., Price Level Determinacy Without Control of a Monetary Aggregate, Working Paper No. 5204, NBER, 1995.
Cytowane przez
Udostępnij na Facebooku Udostępnij na Twitterze Udostępnij na Google+ Udostępnij na Pinterest Udostępnij na LinkedIn Wyślij znajomemu