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Autor
Lipovina-Božović Milena (University of Montenegro), Cerovic Julija (University of Montenegro), Vujosević Sasa (University of Montenegro)
Tytuł
Forecasting Inflation in Montenegro Using Univariate Time Series Models
Źródło
Business and Economic Horizons, 2015, vol. 11, iss. 1, s. 51-63, rys., tab., bibliogr. 13 poz.
Słowa kluczowe
Indeks cen, Inflacja, Prognozowanie, Modele ARIMA
Price index, Inflation, Forecasting, Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models
Uwagi
summ.
Kraj/Region
Czarnogóra
Montenegro
Abstrakt
The analysis of price trends and their prognosis is one of the key tasks of the economic authorities in each country. Due to the nature of the Montenegrin economy as small and open economy with euro as currency, forecasting inflation is very specific which is more difficult due to low quality of the data. This paper analyzes the utility and applicability of univariate time series models for forecasting price index in Montenegro. Data analysis of key macroeconomic movements in previous decades indicates the presence of many possible determinants that could influence forecasting result. This paper concludes that the forecasting models (ARIMA) based only on its own previous values cannot adequately cover the key factors that determine the price level in the future, probably because of the existence of numerous external factors that influence the price movement in Montenegro.(original abstract)
Pełny tekst
Pokaż
Bibliografia
Pokaż
  1. Enders, W., 2004. Applied econometric time series,Jonh Wiley & Sons, Inc., Hoboken, New Jersey
  2. Gujarati, D., 2003. Basic econometrics, McGraw-Hill, London
  3. Jovičić, M., Dragutinovć-Mitrović, R., 2011. Ekonometrijskimetodi i modeli, Beograd: CIDEF
  4. Kalezić, Z., Cerović S.,Božović, B., 2007. "Prognoziranje inflacije: Empirijsko istraživanje kretanja indeksa cijena na malo u Crnoj Gori za 2007. godinu - primjena ARIMA modela".Working paper No.11, Central bank of Montenegro, CBMN (http://www.cb-cg.org accessed on 16.05.2014)
  5. Kovačić, Z., 1995. Analizavremenskihserija, Ekonomskifakultet, Beograd
  6. Krušec, D., 2007. "Short term inflation projections for Slovenia: comparing factor models with AR and VAR models", Prikazi in analize XIV/1 (may 2007), Ljubljana (https://www.bsi.si accessed on 10.02.2013)
  7. Meyler, A., Terry, Q., 1998. "Forecasting Irish inflation using ARIMA models", MPRA Paper 11359, University Library of Munich, Germany
  8. Mladenović, Z., Nojković, A., 2012. Primijenjena analiza vremenskih serija, Beograd: CIDEF
  9. Pufnik, A.,Kunovac, D., 2006. "Kratkoročno prognoziranje inflacije u Hrvatskoj korištenjem sezonskih ARIMA procesa", Istraživanja, I-18, Croatian National Bank. (https://www.hnb.hr accessed on 10.02.2013)
  10. Salam, M., Ferudin M., 2006."Forecasting inflation in developing nations: The case of Pakistan", International Research Journal of Finance and Economics, No.3, pp.138-159
  11. Sekine, T., 2001."Modeling and forecasting inflation in Japan", IMF Working Papers 01/82, International Monetary Fund (https://www.imf.org accessed on 14.03.2012)
  12. Stockton, D. J., Glassman, J.I., 1987. "An evaluation of the forecasting performance of alternative models of inflation", The Review of Economics and Statistics, pp.108-117
  13. Stoviček, K., 2007. "Forecasting with AMA models: the case of Slovenian inflation", Prikazi in analize XIV/1 (may 2007), Ljubljana (https://www.bsi.si accessed on 10.02.2013)
Cytowane przez
Pokaż
ISSN
1804-1205
Język
eng
URI / DOI
http://dx.doi.org/10.15208/beh.2015.05
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