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Coskun Yener (Capital Market Board of Turkey), Jadevicius Arvydas (Royal Agricultural University, United Kingdom)
Is there a Housing Bubble in Turkey?
Real Estate Management and Valuation, 2017, vol. 25, iss. 1, s. 48-73, rys., tab., bibliogr. 125 poz.
Słowa kluczowe
Rynek nieruchomości, Bańka spekulacyjna, Rynek mieszkaniowy, Analiza regresji
Real estate market, Economic bubble, Housing market, Regression analysis
Klasyfikacja JEL: R31, E44, G01
Turcja, Stambuł
Turkey, Istanbul
There was a notable housing price inflation in aggregate/local levels in Turkey during the last few years. Although the country's economic fundamentals remain strong, the probability of a housing bubble is a heated debate among market participants. This timely investigation brings greater clarity to whether the Turkish housing market is in a bubble. The study uses a multi-strand approach to dissect the bubble over the period of Jan. 2010 - Dec. 2014. First, monthly/annual price-to-income and monthly price-to-rent ratios are examined for the national Turkish as well as regional Istanbul, Izmir and Ankara housing markets. Second, an extended CASE and SHILLER (2003) model is applied assessing the interdependence between housing prices and a series of explanatory variables. Lastly, the Right Tail Augmented Dickey-Fuller (Rtadf) test is performed to support the overall analysis. This study finds that neither affordability ratios nor regression estimates support the existence of the bubble in Turkey. (original abstract)
Pełny tekst
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