BazEkon - Biblioteka Główna Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego w Krakowie

BazEkon home page

Meny główne

Rosati Dariusz K. (Warsaw School of Economics, Poland)
Asymmetric Shocks in the Euro Area: Convergence or Divergence?
International Journal of Management and Economics, 2017, vol. 53, nr 3, s. 7-25, tab., wykr., bibliogr. 31 poz.
Zeszyty Naukowe / Szkoła Główna Handlowa. Kolegium Gospodarki Światowej
Słowa kluczowe
Strefa euro, Konwergencja, Polityka fiskalna
Eurozone, Convergence, Fiscal policy
Klasyfikacja JEL: F45
The degree of structural divergence in the Euro Area is examined on the basis of the frequency and distribution of observed asymmetric shocks over the period 1996-2015. An asymmetric shock is defined as an opposite sign difference between the deviation of an individual country's GDP growth rate from a trend and the deviation of the EA-wide GDP growth rate from a trend. Two measures of asymmetric shocks are introduced, one based on exponential trend values and another on moving-average trend values. Geographical distribution of observed ("revealed") shocks shows that EA member countries differ in terms of structural convergence, with a higher number of asymmetric shocks in countries that joined the EA at a later date. The distribution of asymmetric shocks over time shows two peaks in the number of shocks around 2002 and 2011, but no clear tendency towards more divergence is detected. As actual data may not provide a full picture of asymmetric shocks (given that countries with sufficient fiscal space could have neutralized their negative impact on GDP growth rates) a hypothesis on the existence of "non-revealed" negative asymmetric shocks is examined. Testing for correlation between public debt levels and GDP growth rate deviations confirms the existence of "non-revealed" asymmetric shocks in low-debt countries. In general, the observed differences in the number of asymmetric shocks in EA member countries (and their increases over time) may actually reflect different fiscal policy reactions in individual countries as well as the impact of financial and debt crises, and are not necessarily an indication of widening structural divergence across the EA.(original abstract)
Dostępne w
Biblioteka Szkoły Głównej Handlowej
Pełny tekst
  1. Arreaza, A., Bent, S. E., Yosha, O. (1998), Consumption smoothing through fiscal policy in OECD and EU countries, NBER Working Paper, No. 6372.
  2. Bayoumi, T., Eichengreen, B. (1992), Shocking aspects of European monetary integration, in: F. Torres, F. Giavazzi (Eds.), Adjustment and growth in the European Monetary Union, Cambridge University Press and CEPR, Cambridge.
  3. Bąk, H., Maciejewski, S. (2015), Asymmetric shocks and international risk sharing in the European Monetary Union and the European Union, Bank i Kredyt, No. 46 (6), pp. 523-564.
  4. Bohn, H., 1998, "The Behavior of U. S. Public Debt and Deficits," Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 113, No. 3, pp. 949-63.
  5. Buti, M., Sapir, A. (1998), Economic policy in EMU, Clarendon Press, Oxford.
  6. Buti, M., Turrini, A. (2015), Three waves of convergence. Can Eurozone countries start growing together again?, VOX, CEPR's Policy Portal, 17 April.
  7. Cecchetti, S. G., Mohanty, M. S., Zampolli, F. (2011), The real effects of debt, BIS Working Papers, No. 352, Bank of International Settlements.
  8. De Grauwe, P. (2000), Economics of Monetary Union, Oxford University Press.
  9. De Haan, J., Inklaar, R., Jong-A-Pin, R. (2007), Will business cycles in the euro area converge? A critical survey of empirical research, Journal of Economic Surveys, Vol. 22, Issue 2, April 2008, pp. 234-273.
  10. Estrada, Á., Galí, J., López-Salido, D. (2012), Patterns of convergence and divergence in the euro area, paper presented at the 13th Jacques Polak Annual Research Conference, International Monetary Fund, No. 8-9, Washington.
  11. European Commission (1990), One market, one money: an evaluation of the potential benefits and costs of forming an economic and monetary union, European Economy, No. 44, October.
  12. European Commission (2015), Completing Europe's economic and monetary union, report by: Jean-Claude Juncker in close cooperation with Donald Tusk, Jeroen Dijsselbloem, Mario Draghi, and Martin Schulz, Brussels, 22 June.
  13. Frankel, J., Rose, A. (1998), The endogeneity of the optimum currency area criterion, Economic Journal, No. 108, July, pp. 1009-1025.
  14. Furceri, D., Zdzienicka, A. (2013), The euro area crisis: need for a supranational risk sharing mechanism?, IMF Working Paper No. WP/13/98, International Monetary Fund, September.
  15. Ghosh, A. R., Kim, J. I., Mendoza, E. G., Ostry, J. D., Qureshi, M. S. (2013), Fiscal fatigue, fiscal space and debt sustainability in advanced economies, The Economic Journal, Vol. 123, February, pp. 4-30.
  16. Herndon, T., Ash, M., Pollin, R. (2013), Does high public debt consistently stifle economic growth? A critique of Reinhard and Rogoff, Cambridge Journal of Economics, December, pp. 1-13.
  17. IMF (2013), Towards a fiscal union for the euro area, IMF Staff Discussion Note SDN/13/09, International Monetary Fund, September.
  18. Jonung, L., Drea, E. (2009), It can't happen, it's a bad idea, it won't last: U. S. economists on the EMU and the euro, 1989-2002, Econ Journal Watch, Vol. 7, No. 1, January 2009, pp. 4-52.
  19. Krugman, P. (1991), Geography and trade, MIT Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts.
  20. Krugman, P. (1993), Lessons of Massachusetts for EMU, in: F. Torres, F. Giavazzi (Eds.), Adjustment for growth in the European Monetary Union, Cambridge University Press, New York, pp. 241-261.
  21. Krugman, P., Venables, A. (1993), Integration, specialization and adjustment, NBER Working Paper Series, No. 4559.
  22. McKinnon, R. I. (1963), Optimum currency areas, American Economic Review, Vol. 53, September, pp. 717-724.
  23. Mongelli, F. P., Wyplosz, Ch. (2008), The euro at ten: unfulfilled threats and unexpected challenges, Fifth ECB Central Banking Conference, The euro at ten: lessons and challenges, 13-14 November.
  24. Mundell, R. A. (1961), A Theory of optimum currency areas, American Economic Review, Vol. 51, November, pp. 509-517.
  25. Mundell, R. A. (1969), A plan for a European currency, Paper Prepared for Discussion at the American management Association Conference on Future of the International Monetary System, New York, December 10-12.
  26. Mundell, R. A. (1973), Uncommon arguments for common currencies, in: H. G. Johnson, A. K. Swoboda (Eds.), The economics of common currencies, Allen and Unwin, pp. 114-32.
  27. Ostry, J. D., Ghosh, A. R., Kim, J. I., Qureshi, M. S. (2010), Fiscal space, IMF Staff Discussion Note, 10/11, International Monetary Fund, Washington, September.
  28. Pisani-Ferry, J. (2012), The known unknown and unknown unknowns of EMU, Bruegel Policy Contribution, Issue 2012/18, October.
  29. Reinhart, C. M., Rogoff, K. S. (2010), Growth in a time of debt, American Economic Review, No. 100 (2), pp. 573-578.
  30. Rose, A. (2000), One money, one market: the effect of common currencies on trade, Economic Policy, Vol. 15, April, pp. 7-45.
  31. Sørensen, B. E., Yosha, O. (1998), International risk sharing and European monetary unification, Journal of International Economics, Vol. 45, pp. 211-238.
Cytowane przez
Udostępnij na Facebooku Udostępnij na Twitterze Udostępnij na Google+ Udostępnij na Pinterest Udostępnij na LinkedIn Wyślij znajomemu