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Autor
Mehrara Mohsen (University of Tehran, Iran), Farahani Yazdan Gudarzi (University of Tehran, Iran), Faninam Farzan (University of Tehran, Iran), Karsalari Abbas Rezazadeh (Islamic Azad University, Tafresh, Iran)
Tytuł
The Effect of Macroeconomic Variables on the Stock Market Index of the Tehran Stock Exchange
Źródło
International Letters of Social and Humanistic Sciences (ILSHS), 2016, vol. 71, s. 17-24, bibliogr. 18 poz.
Słowa kluczowe
Polityka makroekonomiczna, Giełda, Indeks giełdowy, Zmienność
Macroeconomic policy, Stock exchange, Stock market indexes, Variability
Uwagi
summ.
Kraj/Region
Iran, Teheran
Iran, Tehran
Abstrakt
This paper examines the relationship between stock market index and macroeconomic policies (Fiscal and Monetary) on Iran's economy using quarterly data in the period 1999-2013. This study employed cointegration test and vector autoregressive models (VAR) to examine relationships between the stock market index and the macroeconomic variables. The empirical results reveal that a positive money shock can increase stocks return. According to impulse responses, the government expenditure had a slight impact on stocks return in the short term. But the government expenditure has a positive effect on exchange index in long run. Also the effect of taxes on the stock's price index is negative, so that it reaches its maximum level after the third lag and then alleviates. The GDP shock has positive effect on the stock's price index. Increase in production level leads to increase in earnings and profitability, leading to a positive response from stocks index. Therefore the results showed that the macroeconomic variables such as inflation, exchange rate and GDP have significant effects on Tehran exchange price index. So the hypothesis that the improving economic factors can have a useful role in the booming capital market is confirmed. Also the effect of fiscal policy factors such as tax revenues and government expenditures is more than monetary policy factors on stock returns. (original abstract)
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Bibliografia
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Cytowane przez
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ISSN
2300-2697
Język
eng
URI / DOI
https://doi.org/10.18052/www.scipress.com/ILSHS.71.17
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