BazEkon - Biblioteka Główna Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego w Krakowie

BazEkon home page

Meny główne

Autor
Sączewska-Piotrowska Anna (University of Economics in Katowice, Poland), Piotrowski Damian (Medical University of Silesia, Poland)
Tytuł
Effects of Air Temperature on COVID-19 Case Fatality Rate
Źródło
Contemporary Economics, 2021, vol. 15, nr 1, s. 53-63, rys., tab., bibliogr. 43 poz.
Słowa kluczowe
COVID-19, Umieralność, Zachorowalność, Pandemia
COVID-19, Mortality, Incidence, Pandemic
Uwagi
Klasyfikacja JEL: C41, J19, J10
summ.
Abstrakt
The aim of this study was to assess the case fatality rate (CFR) of COVID-19 by performing a meta-analysis according to the air temperature and to determine if the temperature modifies the pandemic duration to the peak day for CFR of the COVID-19. A novel coronavirus spread began in December 2019 in Wuhan, China, and half a year after, more than 9 million total cases were confirmed worldwide. Therefore, knowing the conditions favorable for the spread of the virus (including weather conditions) is crucial from the perspective of the entire population. Using information from the World Health Organization, subgroup meta-analysis by temperature was performed. Survival analysis using the Kaplan-Meier estimates and the Cox proportional hazards models was conducted. Based on the conducted analysis we can conclude that in countries with temperature equal or lower than 14.8°C the pooled CFR of COVID-19 is higher than in countries with temperature greater than 14.8°C. Besides, in countries with lower temperature the peak of the CFR appears after a longer time from the first case of the novel coronavirus than in countries with higher temperature. (original abstract)
Pełny tekst
Pokaż
Bibliografia
Pokaż
  1. Atkeson A. (2020). What will be the economic impact of COVID-19 in the US? Rough estimates of disease scenarios (Working Paper No. 26867). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w26867
  2. Biswas P. K., Islam M. Z., Debnath N. C., & Yamage M. (2014). Modeling and roles of meteorological factors in outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1. PLOS ONE, 9(6), 1-25. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0098471
  3. Borenstein, M., Hedges, L. V., Higgins, J. P., & Rothstein, H. R. (2010). A basic introduction to fixed-effect and random-effects models for meta-analysis. Research synthesis methods, 1(2), 97-111. https://doi.org/10.1002/jrsm.12
  4. Chan, K. H., Peiris, J. M., Lam, S. Y., Poon, L. L. M., Yuen, K. Y., & Seto, W. H. (2011). The effects of temperature and relative humidity on the viability of the SARS coronavirus. Advances in Virology, 2011, 1-7. https://doi.org/10.1155/2011/734690
  5. DerSimonian, R., & Laird, N. (1986). Meta-analysis in clinical trials. Controlled Clinical Trials, 7(3), 177-188. https://doi.org/10.1016/0197-2456(86)90046-2
  6. Ferguson N. M., Laydon D., Nedjati-Gilani G., ..., Ghani A. C. (2020). Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID-19 mortality and healthcare demand. Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team. https://doi.org/10.25561/77482
  7. Fernandes N. (2020). Economic effects of coronavirus outbreak (COVID-19) on the world economy. SSRN Electronic Journal. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3557504
  8. Guan W. -J., Liang W. -H., Zhao Y., Liang H. -R., Chen Z. -S., Li Y. -M., ..., He J. -X. (2020). Comorbidity and its impact on 1590 patients with COVID-19 in China: a nationwide analysis. European Respiratory Journal, 55(5). https://doi.org/10.1183/13993003.00547-2020
  9. Heavner, K. K., Phillips, C. V., Burstyn, I., & Hare, W. (2010). Dichotomization: 2× 2 (× 2× 2× 2...) categories: infinite possibilities. BMC Medical Research Methodology, 10(1), 1-11. https://doi.org/10.1186/1471-2288-10-59
  10. Higgins J. P. T., & Thompson S. G. (2002). Quantifying heterogeneity in meta-analysis. Statistics in Medicine, 21(11), 1539-1558. https://doi.org/10.1002/sim.1186
  11. Ianevski A., Zusinaite E., Shtaida N., Kallio-Kokko H., Valkonen M., Kantele A., ... Kainov D.E. (2019). Low temperature and low UV indexes correlated with peaks of influenza virus activity in Northern Europe during 2010-2018. Viruses, 11(3), 207. https://doi.org/10.3390/v1103020
  12. Jinjarak, Y., Ahmed, R., Nair-Desai, S., Xin, W., & Aizenman, J. (2020). Accounting for global COVID-19 diffusion patterns, January-April 2020. Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, 4(3), 515-559.
  13. Kadanali A., & Karagoz G. (2015). An overview of Ebola virus disease. Northern Clinics of Istanbul, 2(1), 81-86. https://doi.org/10.14744/nci.2015.97269
  14. Kaplan E. L., & Meier P. (1958). Nonparametric estimation from incomplete observations. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 53(282), 457-481. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1958.10501452
  15. Khafaie M. A., Rahim F. (2020). Cross-country comparison of case fatality rates of COVID-19/SARSCOV-2. Osong Public Health and Research Perspectives, 11(2), 74-80. https://doi.org/10.24171/j.phrp.2020.11.2.03
  16. Li Q., Guan X., Wu P., Wang X., Zhou L., Tong Y., ..., Feng Z. (2020). Early transmission dynamics in Wuhan, China, of novel coronavirus-infected pneumonia. New England Journal of Medicine, 382(13), 1199-1207. https://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa2001316
  17. Lin K., Fong D. Y. T., Zhu B., & Karlberg J. (2006). Environmental factors on the SARS epidemic: Air temperature, passage of time and multiplicative effect of hospital infection. Epidemiology & Infection, 134(2), 223-230. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0950268805005054
  18. List of cities by average temperature. (2020, May 20). In Wikipedia. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cities_by_average_temperature.
  19. Luo W., Majumder M. S., Liu D., Poirier C., Mandl K. D., Lipsitch M., & Santillana M. (2020). The role of absolute humidity on transmission rates of the COVID-19 outbreak. medRxiv. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.12.20022467
  20. Mania A., Kowala-Piaskowska A., & Mozer-Lisewska I. (2020). Inne wirusowe zakażenia układu oddechowego (HRSV, HMPV, HADV) [Various viral respiratory infections (HRSV, HMPV, HADV)]. In: R. Flisiak (Ed.), Choroby zakaźne i pasożytnicze (pp. 786-792). Czelej.
  21. McKibbin W., & Fernando R. (2020), The economic impact of COVID-19. In: R. Baldwin, & B. W. di Mauro (Eds.), Economics in the time of COVID-19 (pp. 45-51). Centre for Economic Policy Research.
  22. Mills M. (2011). Introducing survival and event history analysis. Los Angeles-London-New Dehli-Singapore-Washington. Sage Publications.
  23. Murphy N. F., Stewart S., MacIntyre K., Capewell S., & McMurray J. J. V. (2004). Seasonal variation in morbidity and mortality related to atrial fibrillation. International Journal of Cardiology, 97(2), 283-288. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijcard.2004.03.041
  24. Nicola M., Alsafi Z., Sohrabi C., ..., Agha R. (2020). The socio-economics implications of the coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19): A review. International Journal of Surgery, 78, 185-193. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijsu.2020.04.018
  25. Odhiambo J., Weke P., & Ngare P. (2020). Modeling Kenyan economic impact of coronavirus in Kenya using discrete-time Markov chains. Journal of Finance and Economics, 8(2), 80-85. https://doi.org/10.12691/jfe-8-2-5
  26. Oke J., & Heneghan C. (2020). Global Covid-19 case fatality rates. March 17, 2020. https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/global-covid-19-case-fatality-rates/
  27. Petersen E., Koopmans M., Go U., ..., Simonsen L. (2020). Comparing SARS-CoV-2 with SARSCoV and influenza pandemics. The Lancet Infectious Diseases, 20(9), e238-e244. , https://doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30484-9
  28. Petrosillo N., Vieconte G., Ergonul O., Ippolito G., Petersen E. (2020). COVID-19, SARS and MERS: Are they closely related? Clinical Microbiology and Infection, 26(6), 729-734
  29. Prata D. N., Rodrigues W., & Bermejo P. H. (2020). Temperature significantly changes COVID-19 transmission in (sub)tropical cities of Brazil. Science of the Total Environment, 729. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138862
  30. Shabir O. (2020, January 29). What is case fatality rate? News Medical https://www.news-medical.net/health/What-is-Case-Fatality-Rate-(CFR).aspx
  31. Sherpa D. (2020). Estimating impact of austerity policies in COVID-19 fatality rates: Examining the dynamics of economic policy and case fatality rates (CFR) of COVID-19 in OECD countries [Preprint]. medRxiv. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.03.20047530
  32. Shi P., Dong Y., Yan H., Zhao C., Li X., Liu W., ..., Xi S. (2020). Impact of temperature on the dynamics of the COVID-19 outbreak in China. Science of the Total Environment, 728. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138890
  33. Stewart P.D.S. (2016). Seasonality and selective trends in viral acute respiratory tract infections. Medical Hypotheses, 86, 104-119. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mehy.2015.11.005
  34. Sumner A., Hoy C., & Ortiz-Juarez E. (2020). Estimates of the impact of COVI-19 on global poverty (Working Paper 2020/43). United Nations University World Institute for Development Economics Research.. https://doi.org/10.35188/UNU-WIDER/2020/800-9
  35. Tan J., Mu L., Huang J., Yu S., Chen B. Yin J. (2005). An initial investigation of the association between the SARS outbreak and weather: with the view of the environmental temperature and its variation. Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health, 59(3), 186-192. https://doi.org/10.1136/jech.2004.020180
  36. Verity R., Okell L. C., Dorigatti I., Winskill P., Whittaker C., Imai N., ..., Ferguson N. M. (2020). Estimates of the severity of coronavirus disease 2019: A model-based analysis. Lancet Infectious Diseases, 20, 669-677. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30243-7
  37. Wang J., Tang K., Feng K, & Lv W. (2020). High temperature and high humidity reduce the transmission of COVID-19. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3551767
  38. World Health Organization (2020). Coronavirus disease (COVID-2019) situation reports, https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports
  39. Wuhan Municipal Health Commission (2019). Retrieved from http://wjw.wuhan.gov.cn/front/web/showDetail/2019123108989
  40. Wu Y., Jing W., Liu J., Ma Q., Yuan J., Wang Y., ..., Liu M. (2020). Effects of temperature and humidity on the daily new cases and new deaths of COVID-19 in 166 countries. Science of the Total Environment, 729. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.139051
  41. Yang J., Zheng Y., Gou X., Pu K., Chen Z., Guo Q., ..., Zhou Y. (2020). Prevalence of comorbidities and its effects in patients infected with SARS-CoV-2: A systematic review and meta-analysis. International Journal of Infectious Diseases, 94, 91-95. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijid.2020.03.017
  42. Yao Y., Pan J., Liu Z., Meng X., Wang W., Kan H., Wang W. (2020). No association of COVID-19 transmission with temperature or UV radiation in Chinese cities. European Respiratory Society, 55. https://doi.org/10.1183/13993003.00517-2020
  43. Zhu N., Zhang D., Wang W., Li X., Yang B., Song J., ... Tan W. (2020). A novel coronavirus from patients with pneumonia in China, 2019. The New England Journal of Medicine, 382(8), 727-733. https://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa2001017
Cytowane przez
Pokaż
ISSN
2084-0845
Język
eng
URI / DOI
http://dx.doi.org/10.5709/ce.1897-9254.435
Udostępnij na Facebooku Udostępnij na Twitterze Udostępnij na Google+ Udostępnij na Pinterest Udostępnij na LinkedIn Wyślij znajomemu