- Autor
- Zielińska-Sitkiewicz Monika (Warsaw University of Life Sciences - SGGW, Warsaw, Poland), Chrzanowska Mariola (Warsaw University of Life Sciences - SGGW, Warsaw, Poland)
- Tytuł
- Prediction of Pork Meat Prices by Selected Methods as an Element Supporting the Decision-making Process
- Źródło
- Operations Research and Decisions, 2021, vol. 31, no. 3, s. 137-152, rys., tab., bibliogr. 27 poz.
- Słowa kluczowe
- Sektor rolno-spożywczy, Ceny, Mięso wieprzowe, Prognozowanie cen, Modele ARIMA
Agri-food sector, Prices, Pork meat, Prediction of prices, Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models - Uwagi
- summ.
- Abstrakt
- Forecasts of economic processes can be determined using various methods, and each of them has its own characteristics and is based on specific assumptions. In the case of agriculture, forecasting is an essential element of efficient management of the entire farming process. The pork sector is one of the main agricultural sectors in the world. Pork consumption and supply are the highest among all types of meat, and Poland belongs to the group of large produ cers. The article analyses the price formation of class E pork, expressed in € per 100 kg of carcass, recorded from May 2004 to December 2019. The data comes from the Agri-food data portal. A creeping trend model with segments of linear trends of various lengths and the methodology of building ARIMA models are used to forecast these prices. The accuracy of forecasts is verified by forecasting ex post and ex ante errors, graphical analysis, and backcasting analysis. The study shows that both methods can be used in the prediction of pork prices. (original abstract)
- Dostępne w
- Biblioteka Główna Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego w Krakowie
Biblioteka SGH im. Profesora Andrzeja Grodka
Biblioteka Główna Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego w Katowicach - Pełny tekst
- Pokaż
- Bibliografia
-
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- Cytowane przez
- ISSN
- 2081-8858
- Język
- eng
- URI / DOI
- http://dx.doi.org/10.37190/ord210307
