BazEkon - Biblioteka Główna Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego w Krakowie

BazEkon home page

Meny główne

Autor
Kłopocka Aneta Maria (University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw, Poland), Wilczyński Ryszard (University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw, Poland)
Tytuł
Do Credit Supply and Unemployment Risk Matter for Household Saving? Evidence from Poland
Źródło
Contemporary Economics, 2021, vol. 15, nr 4, s. 375-392, rys., tab., aneks, bibliogr. 72 poz.
Słowa kluczowe
Kredyt, Oszczędności gospodarstw domowych, Bezrobocie
Credit, Household savings, Unemployment
Uwagi
Klasyfikacja JEL: E21, E24, G51
summ.
This paper was presented at the international conference "Challenges of Contemporary Economics" (September, 13-15, 2020) organized by the University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw, Poland.
Abstrakt
This paper contributes to the literature on the effects of uncertainty on household saving - a long-standing and extensively explored topic yet leaving a number of issues inconclusive. It concentrates on the labor income uncertainty by addressing saving against unemployment risk in terms of changes in credit supply and households' financial wealth. Time series analysis uses dataset of quarterly observations from 2003 Q4 to 2019 Q3 for Poland. It provides empirical evidence of the negative relationship of changes in households' financial wealth and credit availability with the household propensity to save, in line with the buffer saving model. Furthermore, it contributes to the discussion on the choice of uncertainty measures referring to the labor market with a recommendation to employ the subjective (perceived) unemployment expectation index rather than the objective unemployment rate. These results are meaningful for policy implications. They emphasize the role of credit availability for household consumption/saving decisions. In case of expansionary monetary policy and making credit easier to acquire for households, all other things equal, a negative effect on the household saving rate may be expected. This poses a question about the risk of households' overreliance on credit and therefore about their financial stability in emergency situations. (original abstract)
Pełny tekst
Pokaż
Bibliografia
Pokaż
  1. Aizenman, J., Cavallo, E., & Noy, I. (2015). Precautionary strategies and household saving. Open Economies Review, 26(5), 911-939. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11079-015-9351-2
  2. Altig, D., Baker, S., Barrero, J. M., Bloom, N., Bunn, P., Chen, S., Davis, S. J., Leather, J., Meyer, B., & Mihaylov, E. (2020). Economic uncertainty before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. Journal of Public Economics, 191, 1-26. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2020.104274
  3. Baiardi, D., Magnani, M., & Menegatti, M. (2020). The theory of precautionary saving: An overview of recent developments. Review of Economics of the Household, 18(2), 513-542. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11150-019-09460-3
  4. Baker, S. R., Bloom, N., & Davis, S. J. (2016). Measuring economic policy uncertainty. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 131(4), 1593-1636. https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjw024
  5. Bande, R., & Riveiro, D. (2013). Private saving rates and macroeconomic uncertainty: Evidence from Spanish regional data. Economic and Social Review, 44(3), 323-349. https://www.esr.ie/article/view/75
  6. Bertaut, C. C., & Haliassos, M. (1997). Precautionary portfolio behavior from a life-cycle perspective. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 21(8), 1511-1542. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0165-1889(97)00060-2
  7. Białowąs, S., & Olejnik, I. (2015). Oszczędności gospodarstw domowych w różnych fazach cyklu koniunkturalnego [Household savings in different phases of the business cycle]. Studia Oeconomica Posnaniensia, 3(4), 153-165.
  8. Bouyon, S. (2016). Policy options for European household saving. Journal of Economic Integration, 31(1), 134-165. https://doi.org/10.11130/jei.2016.31.1.134
  9. Bram, J., & Ludvigson, S. C. (1998). Does consumer confidence forecast household expenditure? A Sentiment Index Horse Race. FRBNY Economic Policy Review, 4(2), 59-78.
  10. Broadway, B., & Haisken-DeNew, J. P. (2019). Keep calm and consume? Subjective uncertainty and precautionary savings. Journal of Economics and Finance, 43(3), 481-505. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12197-018-9451-0
  11. Bruestle, S., & Crain, W. M. (2015). A mean-variance approach to forecasting with the consumer confidence index. Applied Economics, 47(23), 2430-2444. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2015.1008763
  12. Cagetti, M. (2003). Wealth accumulation over the life cycle and precautionary savings. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 21(3), 339-353. https://doi.org/10.1198/073500103288619007
  13. Carroll, C. D. (1992). The buffer-stock theory of saving: Some macroeconomic evidence. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1992(2), 61-135. https://doi.org/10.2307/2534582
  14. Carroll, C. D. (1997). Buffer-stock saving and the life cycle/permanent income hypothesis. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 112(1), 1-55. https://doi.org/10.1162/003355397555109
  15. Carroll, C. D., & Samwick, A. A. (1997). The nature of precautionary wealth. Journal of Monetary Economics, 40(1), 41-71. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-3932(97)00036-6
  16. Carroll, C. D., Slacalek, J., & Sommer, M. (2012). Dissecting saving dynamics: Measuring wealth, precautionary and credit effects. ECB Working Paper Series No 1474, 1-50.
  17. Carroll, C. D., Slacalek, J., & Sommer, M. (2019). Dissecting saving dynamics: Measuring wealth, precautionary, and credit effects. NBER Working Paper Series, 26131. https://www.nber.org/papers/w26131
  18. Carroll, C., Fuhrer, J., & Wilcox, D. (1994). Does consumer sentiment forecast household spending-if so, why. American Economic Review, 84(5), 1397-1408.
  19. Cerda, R., Fuentes, R., García, G., & Llodrá, J. I. (2020). Understanding domestic savings: An empirical approach. Applied Economics, 52(9), 905-928. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2019.1646871
  20. Ceritoğlu, E. (2013). The impact of labour income risk on household saving decisions in Turkey. Review of Economics of the Household, 11(1), 109-129. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11150-011-9137-2
  21. Chamon, M., Liu, K., & Prasad, E. (2013). Income uncertainty and household savings in China. Journal of Development Economics, 105 (C), 164- 177. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2013.07.014
  22. Claveria, O., Monte, E., & Torra, S. (2019). Empirical modelling of survey-based expectations for the design of economic indicators in five European regions. Empirica, 46(2), 205-227. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10663-017-9395-1
  23. Czerwonka, M. (2019). Cultural, cognitive and personality traits in risk-taking behaviour: Evidence from Poland and the United States of America. Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, 32(1), 894-908. https://doi.org/10.1080/1331677X.2019.1588766
  24. Deaton, A. (1991). Saving and liquidity constraints. Econometrica, 59(5), 1221-1248. https://doi.org/10.2307/2938366
  25. Dees, S., & Brinca, P. S. (2013). Consumer confidence as a predictor of consumption spending: Evidence for the United States and the Euro area. International Economics, 134, 1-14. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.inteco.2013.05.001
  26. Deidda, M. (2014). Precautionary saving under liquidity constraints: Evidence from Italy. Empirical Economics, 46(1), 329-360. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-012-0677-y
  27. Dreze, J. H., & Modigliani, F. (1972). Consumption decisions under uncertainty. Journal of Economic Theory, 5(3), 308-335. https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-780850-5.50041-1
  28. Dynan, K. (1993). How prudent are consumers. Journal of Political Economy, 101(6), 1104-1113. https://doi.org/10.1086/261916
  29. European Commission. (2020). The joint harmonized EU programme of business and consumer surveys. user guide. European Commission. https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/info/files/bcs_user_guide_2020_02_en.pdf
  30. Fereidouni, H. G., & Tajaddini, R. (2017). Housing wealth, financial wealth and consumption expenditure: The role of consumer confidence. Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 54(2), 216-236. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11146-015-9537-9
  31. Fulford, S. L. (2015). The surprisingly low importance of income uncertainty for precaution. European Economic Review, 79, 151-171. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2015.07.016
  32. Gomes, F. J., Haliassos, M., & Ramadoral, T. (2021). Household finance. Journal of Economic Literature, 59(3), 919-1000.
  33. Granger, C. W., & Newbold, P. (1974). Spurious regressions in econometrics. Journal of Econometrics, 2(2), 111-120.
  34. Grigoli, F., Herman, A., & Schmidt-Hebbel, K. (2018). Saving in the world. World Development, 104, 257-270. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2017.11.022
  35. Gunning, J. W. (2010). Risk and savings: A taxonomy. Economics Letters, 107(1), 39-41. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2009.12.020
  36. Harasim, J. (2012). Financial decision-making under uncertainty-cross-cultural differences. Studia Ekonomiczne / Uniwersytet Ekonomiczny w Katowicach, nr 106 Finanse w niestabilnym otoczeniu-dylematy i wyzwania : rynki finansowe, 225-233.
  37. Hubbard, R. G., Skinner, J., & Zeldes, S. P. (1994). The importance of precautionary motives in explaining individual and aggregate saving. Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, 40, 59-125. https://doi.org/10.1016/0167-2231(94)90004-3
  38. Kłopocka, A. M. (2017). Does Consumer Confidence Forecast Household Saving and Borrowing Behavior? Evidence for Poland. Social Indicators Research, 133(2), 693-717. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11205-016-1376-4
  39. Kłopocka, A. M. (2018a). Does the buffer stock model explain the household saving rate in Poland? In: F. Chybalski & M. Marcinkowska (Eds.), Contemporary problems of intergenerational relations and pension systems: A theoretical and empirical perspective (pp. 174-183). Lodz University of Technology Press.
  40. Kłopocka, A. M. (2018b). Skłonność gospodarstw domowych do oszczędzania a wiedza finansowa [Household propensity to save and financial knowledge]. Bank i Kredyt, 49(5), 461-492.
  41. Kolasa, A., & Liberda, B. (2015). Determinants of saving in Poland: Are they different from those in other OECD countries? Eastern European Economics, 53(2), 124-148. https://doi.org/10.1080/00128775.2015.1033276
  42. Korzeniowska, A. M. (2019). Institutional determinants of household savings in Poland. Journal of Research in Business, 1(4), 55-63. https://doi.org/10.23892/JRB.2019453295
  43. Kośny, M. (2013). Economic activity, saving, credit and income polarisation in Poland. Post-Communist Economies, 25(4), 512-528. https://doi.org/10.1080/14631377.2013.844931
  44. Kośny, M. (2020). Economic resourcefulness as a determinant of saving and borrowing in Poland. Post-Communist Economies, 32(6), 793-812. https://doi.org/10.1080/14631377.2020.1727264
  45. Kukk, M., & Staehr, K. (2017). Macroeconomic factors in the dynamics of corporate and household saving: Evidence from Central and Eastern Europe. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 53(11), 2585-2608. https://doi.org/10.1080/1540496X.2016.1262759
  46. Lee, J.-J., & Sawada, Y. (2007). The degree of precautionary saving: A reexamination. Economics Letters, 96(2), 196-201.
  47. Leland, H. E. (1968). Saving and uncertainty: The precautionary demand for saving. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 82(3), 465. https://doi.org/10.2307/1879518
  48. Liberda, B. (2015). Macroeconomic savings in Poland. Ekonomista, 4, 437-451.
  49. Limosani, M., & Millemaci, E. (2014). Precautionary savings of agents with heterogeneous risk aversion. Applied Economics, 46(20), 2342-2361. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2014.896983
  50. Ludvigson, S. C. (2004). Consumer confidence and consumer spending. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 18(2), 29-50. https://doi.org/10.1257/0895330041371222
  51. Lugilde, A., Bande, R., & Riveiro, D. (2019). Precautionary saving: A review of the empirical literature. Journal of Economic Surveys, 33(2), 481-515. https://doi.org/10.1111/joes.12284
  52. Lusardi, A. (1998). On the importance of the precautionary saving motive. American Economic Review, 88(2), 449-453.
  53. Malovaná, S., Hodula, M., & Frait, J. (2021). What does really drive consumer confidence? Social Indicators Research. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11205-021-02626-6
  54. Mastrogiacomo, M., & Alessie, R. (2014). The precautionary savings motive and household savings. Oxford Economic Papers-New Series, 66(1), 164-187. https://doi.org/10.1093/oep/gpt028
  55. Mishra, A. K., Uematsu, H., & Powell, R. R. (2012). Precautionary wealth and income uncertainty: A household-level analysis. Journal of Applied Economics, 15(2), 353-369. Scopus. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1514-0326(12)60015-4
  56. Mody, A., Ohnsorge, F., & Sandri, D. (2012). Precautionary savings in the Great Recession. IMF Economic Review, 60(1), 114-138.
  57. NBP. (2019). Senior loan officer opinion survey on bank lending practices and credit conditions (4th quarter 2019). NBP.
  58. Nizam, R., Karim, Z. A., Rahman, A. A., & Sarmidi, T. (2020). Financial inclusiveness and economic growth: New evidence using a threshold regression analysis. Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, 33(1), 1465-1484. https://doi.org/10.1080/1331677X.2020.1748508
  59. Odoardi, I., & Pagliari, C. (2020). Household wealth as a factor of economic growth: A Case Study of Italy. Contemporary Economics, 14(3), 337-353. https://doi.org/10.5709/ce.1897-9254.408
  60. Opoku, P. K. (2020). The short-run and long-run determinants of household saving: Evidence from OECD economies. Comparative Economic Studies, 62(3), 430-464.
  61. Potocki, T., & Cierpiał-Wolan, M. (2019). Factors shaping the financial capability of low-income consumers from rural regions of Poland. International Journal of Consumer Studies, 43(2), 187-198. https://doi.org/10.1111/ijcs.12498
  62. Rybaczewska, M., Sparks, L., & Sułkowski, Ł. (2020). Consumers' purchase decisions and employer image. Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, 55, 102123.
  63. Sandmo, A. (1970). The effect of uncertainty on saving decisions. The Review of Economic Studies, 37(3), 353-360.
  64. Simon, H. A. (1955). A behavioral model of rational choice. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 69(1), 99-118.
  65. Škare, M., Sinković, D., & Porada-Rochoń, M. (2019). Financial development and economic growth in Poland 1990-2018. Technological and Economic Development of Economy, 25(2), 103-133.
  66. Skinner, J. (1988). Risky income, life-cycle consumption, and precautionary savings. Journal of Monetary Economics, 22(2), 237-255. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-3932(88)90021-9
  67. Swiecka, B., Yeşildağ, E., Özen, E., & Grima, S. (2020). Financial literacy: The case of Poland. Sustainability, 12(2), 700. https://doi.org/10.3390/su12020700
  68. Szopinski, T. (2019). Who is unbanked? Evidence from Poland. Contemporary Economics, 13(4), 417-427.
  69. Thimme, J. (2016). Intertemporal substitution in consumption: A literature review. Journal of Economic Surveys, 31(1), 226-257. https://doi.org/10.1111/joes.12142
  70. Vinokurov, S. S., Medved, A. A., & Mierin, L. A. (2018). Economic news and household decisions. Contemporary Economics, 12(1), 57-68.
  71. Wang, P., Li, X., Zhan, X., Zhang, Y., Yan, Y., & Meng, W. (2019). Building consumer confidence index based on social media big data. Human Behavior and Emerging Technologies, 1(3), 261-268. https://doi.org/10.1002/hbe2.156
  72. Wooldridge, J. M. (2013). Introductory econometrics: A modern approach (5th ed). South-Western Cengage Learning.
Cytowane przez
Pokaż
ISSN
2084-0845
Język
eng
URI / DOI
http://dx.doi.org/10.5709/ce.1897-9254.455
Udostępnij na Facebooku Udostępnij na Twitterze Udostępnij na Google+ Udostępnij na Pinterest Udostępnij na LinkedIn Wyślij znajomemu