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Autor
Melnychenko Oleksandr (Gdansk University of Technology), Osadcha Tetiana (Odesa Mechnikov National University, Ukraine), Kovalyov Anatoliy (Odessa State Economic University, Ukraine), Matskul Valerii (Odessa National Economic University, Ukraine)
Tytuł
Dependence of Housing Real Estate Prices on Inflation as One of the Most Important Factors : Poland's Case
Źródło
Real Estate Management and Valuation, 2022, vol. 30, iss. 4, s. 25-41, tab., rys., bibliogr. 69 poz.
Słowa kluczowe
Nieruchomości, Mieszkalnictwo, Inflacja
Real estate, Housing, Inflation
Uwagi
Klasyfikacja JEL: R15, R31, R42.
summ.
Abstrakt
The study aimed to examine the impact of inflation on the real estate market using Polish panel data for the last 13 years. It is based on a panel model, where price changes of one square meter of housing are determined as a function in changes of inflation, the central bank's base rate, dwellings built, as well as new mortgage loans. The quarterly dynamics of the average price of 1 square meter of housing in Poland's eight largest cities in the 2009-2021 period was studied. This price was modeled and predicted using one of the Box-Jenkins time series models: the Holt-Winter model of exponential smoothing with a damped trend. The forecasting results showed a small (up to 4%) relative error in comparison with the actual data. In addition, the moment (2017) of the price trend change was found. Therefore, piecewise linear regressions with high regression coefficients were used when modeling the impact of inflation changes on the real estate market indicators under consideration. The results obtained provide valuable insight into the relationship of real estate market indicators, allowing consumers to predict available options and make decisions in accordance with their preferences. (original abstract)
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Bibliografia
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Cytowane przez
Pokaż
ISSN
2300-5289
Język
eng
URI / DOI
http://dx.doi.org/doi.org/10.2478/remav-2022-0027
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