BazEkon - Biblioteka Główna Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego w Krakowie

BazEkon home page

Meny główne

Autor
Kowalewski Paweł (Narodowy Bank Polski), Skopiec Dominik A. (Narodowy Bank Polski; Warsaw School of Economics)
Tytuł
Price Processes in the Global Gold Market
Procesy cenowe na światowym rynku złota
Źródło
Bank i Kredyt, 2024, nr 4, s. 381-424, bibliogr. 69 poz., zał.
Bank & Credit
Słowa kluczowe
Ceny surowców, Złoto, Rynek złota, Inflacja, Polityka pieniężna, Kurs walutowy
Raw materials prices, Gold, Gold market, Inflation, Monetary policy, Exchange rates
Uwagi
Klasyfikacja JEL: E31, E42, E44, E58, F31, G12, G15
streszcz., summ.
Abstrakt
Celem artykułu jest ocena wartości złota przy użyciu szerokiej gamy wskaźników, a także przedstawienie czynników determinujących ceny złota, ze szczególnym uwzględnieniem kształtowania się popytu i podaży na rynku złota oraz instrumentów finansowych opartych na złocie. Hipotezą artykułu jest stwierdzenie, że złoto pozostaje cenne i drogie zarówno w odniesieniu do walut, jak i innych towarów. Co więcej, jego rekordowe ceny są wynikiem rosnących napięć geopolitycznych i niepewności, a także wzrostu presji inflacyjnej po wielu latach niskiej inflacji. Znaczący wpływ na ceny złota wywiera również polityka pieniężna Rezerwy Federalnej i kurs dolara amerykańskiego. Jednakże w ostatnim czasie ceny złota osiągnęły rekordowe poziomy pomimo wyższych stóp procentowych, co świadczy o silnym wpływie czynników związanych ze wzrostem napięć geopolitycznych i postępującej fragmentacji gospodarki światowej. Wzrost cen złota wynika również z rosnącego poziomu dochodu oraz prywatnego popytu na kruszec w gospodarkach wschodzących, zwłaszcza w Chinach i Indiach. Widoczne jest również coraz większe znaczenie banków centralnych w kształtowaniu cen złota ze względu na ich rekordowe zakupy w latach 2022-2023. Zastosowane metody badawcze obejmują analizę statystyczno-opisową, analizę porównawczą i studium literatury. (skrócony abstrakt oryginalny)

Recurring global crises, increasing uncertainty in the world economy, rising geopolitical risk and recently geoeconomic fragmentation have renewed and intensified interest in gold in the 21st century. The precious metal still retains an important role in the economy, most notably as a long-term store of value and efficient portfolio diversifier. One of the most remarkable changes on the global gold market refers to the role of central banks. Over several decades after the breakup of the Bretton Woods system, central banks were selling gold held in their reserves. However, following the global financial crisis central banks ceased to be a source of gold supply and became a significant component of global demand for gold. We demonstrate that gold remains valuable and expensive in terms of both currencies and other commodities. Moreover, its record prices are a result of rising geopolitical tensions and uncertainty as well as the resurrection of inflationary pressures. We argue that gold prices are also overwhelmingly influenced by the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve and the US dollar exchange rate. On the other hand, the rapid increase in the price of gold reflects rising income and private demand for gold in emerging market economies, particularly in China and India. The purpose of the article is to assess the value of gold using a wide range of metrics as well as to present the determinants of gold prices, with special attention given to demand and supply fundamentals and financial instruments based on gold. The research methods used include statistical-descriptive analysis, comparative analysis and literature study. (original abstract)
Dostępne w
Biblioteka SGH im. Profesora Andrzeja Grodka
Biblioteka Główna Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego w Katowicach
Pełny tekst
Pokaż
Bibliografia
Pokaż
  1. Arendas P. (2016), Gold-silver ratio and its utilisation in long term silver investing, Mediterranean Journal of Social Science, 7(1), 285-290.
  2. Arslanalp S., Eichengreen B., Simpson-Bell C. (2023), Gold as international reserves: a barbarous relic no more?, Working Paper, 2023/014, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Arslanap S., Eichengreen B., Simpson-Bell C. (2022), The stealth erosion of dollar dominance: active diversifiers and the rise of nontraditional reserve currencies, Working Paper, WP/22/58, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Barsky R.B., Epstein C., Lafont-Nueller (2021), What Drives Gold Prices?, The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  5. Baur D., McDermott T. (2009), Is gold a safe haven? International evidence, Discussion Paper, 310, Institute for International Integration Studies.
  6. Baur D.G., Beckmann J., Czudaj R. (2017), The relative valuation of gold, Chemnitz Economic Papers, 005/2017, Chemnitz University of Technology.
  7. Baur D.G., Smales L.A. (2020), Hedging geopolitical risk with precious metals, Journal of Banking and Finance, 117.
  8. Beckman J., Berger T., Czudaj R. (2019), Gold price dynamics and the role of uncertainty, Quantitative Finance, 19, 663-681.
  9. Bordo M.D., Eichengreen B. (1998), The rise and fall of a barbarous relic: the role of gold in the international monetary system, NBER Working Paper, 6436.
  10. Bordo M.D., McCauley R.N. (2017), Triffin: dilemma or myth?, Bank for International Settlements.
  11. Bukowski S.I. (2016), The main determinants of gold price in the international market, International Business and Global Economy, 35/1, 402-413.
  12. Cai J., Wong M. (2001), What moves the gold market?, Journal of Futures Markets, 21(3), 257-278.
  13. Capie F., Mills T.C., Wood G. (2005), Gold as a hedge against the dollar, Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 15(4), 343-352.
  14. Cheng S., Han L. Cao Y., Jiang Q., Liang R. (2022), Gold-oil dynamic relationship and the asymmetric role of geopolitical risks, Resources Policy, 78.
  15. CRS (2019), The World Oil Market and U.S. Policy: Background and Select Issues for Congress, Congressional Research Service.
  16. Dee J., Li L., Zheng Z. (2013), Is gold a hedge or a safe haven? Evidence from inflation and stock market, International Journal of Development and Sustainability, 2(1), 12-27.
  17. Digeorgia J. (2009), The Trader's Great Gold Rush: Must-Have Methods for Trading and Investing in the Gold Market, John Wiley & Sons.
  18. Draper P., Faff R., Hillier D. (2006), Do precious metals shine? An investment perspective, Financial Analysts Journal, 62(2), 98-106.
  19. Eichengreen B. (2021), The Dollar and its Discontents, Soeul Journal of Economics, 34(1), 1-15.
  20. Eichengreen B. (2022), International Reserves after the Russia Sanctions: A Role for Gold?, World Gold Council.
  21. Erb C.B., Harvey C.R. (2013), The Golden Dilemma, Working Paper, 18706, National Bureau of Economic Research.
  22. Fisher D. (2024), Understanding GOFO: a simplified guide to gold forward rates, Physical Gold, 30 January, https://www.physicalgold.com/insights/what-is-gofo-guide-to-gold-forward-rates/.
  23. Gaspareniene L., Remeikiene R., Sadeckas A., Ginevicious R. (2018), The main gold price determinants and the forecast of gold price future trends, Economics and Sociology, 11(3), 248-264.
  24. Ghosh D., Levin E.J., MacMillan P., Wright R.E. (2004), Gold as an inflation hedge?, Studies in Economics and Finance, 22(1), 1-25.
  25. GoldCore (2013), The Comprehensive Guide to the Gold Price.
  26. Gomis-Porqueras P., Shi S., Tan D. (2020), Gold as a financial instrument, MPRA Paper, 102782.
  27. Gourinchas P.-O., Jeanne O. (2012), Global safe assets, BIS Working Papers, 399.
  28. Greenwald M.B. (2020), The Future of the United States Dollar: Weaponizing the US Financial System, Atlantic Council.
  29. Guo Z. (2023), Analysis of the correlation between gold-oil ratio and capital market, BCP Business & Management, 46(2023), 98-105.
  30. Hood M., Malik F. (2013), Is gold the best hedge and a safe haven under changing stock market volatility?, Review of Financial Economics, 2(2), 47-52.
  31. Hull J.C. (2012), Options, Futures, and other Derivatives, Prentice Hall.
  32. IMF (2023), Geoeconomic Fragmentation and the Future of Multilateralism, Staff Discussion Note.
  33. Immanuvel S.M., Lazar D. (2020), Elasticities of gold demand - an empirical analysis using cointegration and error correction model, Arthaniti: Journal of Economic Theory and Practice, 20(6).
  34. Jagerson J., Hansen W.S. (2011), All About Investing in Gold, McGraw-Hill.
  35. Jastram R.W. (2009), The Golden Constant: The English and American Experience 1560-2007, Edward Elgar Publishing.
  36. LBMA (2017), The Guide: An Introduction to the Global Precious Metals OTC Market, London Bullion Market Association.
  37. Le A., Zhu H. (2013), Risk premia in gold lease rates, UNC Kenan-Flagler Research Paper, 2013-16.
  38. Liu Z.Z., Papa M. (2022), Can BRICS De-Dollarize the Global Financial System?, Cambridge University Press.
  39. Maatoung A.B., Triki M.B. (2020), The gold market as a safe haven against the stock market uncertainty: evidence from geopolitical risk, Resources Policy, 70, March.
  40. McDowell D. (2022), The Unfreezable Asset: Gold, Sanctions, and Russia, War on the Rocks, 7 March.
  41. McDowell D. (2023), Bucking the Buck: US Financial Sanctions and the International Backlash against the Dollar, Oxford University Press.
  42. Murenbeeld M. (2001), The elasticity of jewellery demand, Alchemist, 22, 14-17.
  43. Nölke A. (2022), The weaponization of global payment infrastructures: a strategic dilemma, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research White Paper, 89.
  44. Nugée J. (2000), Foreign Exchange Reserves Management, Bank of England.
  45. O'Callaghan G. (1991), The structure and operation of the world gold market, Working Paper, WP/91/120, International Monetary Fund.
  46. Polášková I., Komárek L., Škoda M. (2019), The Contemporary Role of Gold in Central Banks' Balance Sheets, Czech National Bank.
  47. Prasad E. (2019), Has the Dollar Lost Ground as the Dominant International Currency?, Brookings Institution.
  48. Ram V. (2024), History shows gold not always best inflation hedge: macro view, Bloomberg, 14.02.2024.
  49. Rickards J. (2016), The New Case for Gold, Penguin.
  50. Shafiaee S., Topal E. (2010), An overview of global gold market and gold price forecasting, Resources Policy, 35(2010), 178-189.
  51. Spall J. (2009), Investing in Gold: The Essential Safe Haven Investment for Every Portfolio, McGraw-Hill.
  52. Tkacz G. (2007), Gold prices and inflation, Working Paper, 2007-35, Bank of Canada.
  53. UNCTAD (2016), Commodities at a Glance: Special Issue on Gold, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
  54. US Geological Survey (2023), Mineral Commodity Summaries 2023.
  55. Webb A. (2021), Gold Production oner the past & next 25 years, Alchemist, 100, 32-35.
  56. WGC (2011), Liquidity in the global gold market, World Gold Council.
  57. WGC (2018a), Gold Market Primer: Gold-backed ETFs, World Gold Council.
  58. WGC (2018b), Gold Market Primer: Gold Prices, World Gold Council.
  59. WGC (2018c), Gold Market Primer: Mine Production, World Gold Council.
  60. WGC (2018d), Gold Market Primer: Gold Recycling, World Gold Council.
  61. WGC (2018e), Gold 2048: The next 30 years for gold, World Gold Council.
  62. WGC (2020), Gold Market Primer: China's Gold Market, World Gold Council.
  63. WGC (2021), A Central Banker's Guide to Gold as a Reserve Asset, World Gold Council.
  64. WGC (2023a), Gold Demand Trends Q3 2023, World Gold Council.
  65. WGC (2023b), The relevance of gold as a strategic asset 2023, World Gold Council.
  66. WGC (2023c), 2023 Central Bank Gold Reserves Survey, World Gold Council.
  67. WGC (2023d), Gold Market Primer: Market size and structure, World Gold Council.
  68. WGC (2023e), Gold Demand Trends: Full Year and Q4 2022, World Gold Council.
  69. WGC (2024), Gold Demand Trends: Full Year and Q4 2023, World Gold Council.
Cytowane przez
Pokaż
ISSN
0137-5520
Język
eng
Udostępnij na Facebooku Udostępnij na Twitterze Udostępnij na Google+ Udostępnij na Pinterest Udostępnij na LinkedIn Wyślij znajomemu