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Autor
Bartzsch Nikolaus (Deutsche Bundesbank), Rösl Gerhard (echnical University of Applied Sciences (OTH), Regensburg, Germany), Seitz Franz (Technical University of Applied Sciences (OTH) Amberg-Weiden, Germany)
Tytuł
Cash Demand in Times of Crises: a Global Perspective
Popyt na gotówkę w okresach kryzysów. Perspektywa globalna
Źródło
Bank i Kredyt, 2025, nr 1, s. 1-43, aneks, bibliogr. s. 14-18
Bank & Credit
Słowa kluczowe
Obsługa gotówki, Popyt na pieniądze, Kryzys finansowy
Cash handling, Money demand, Financial crisis
Uwagi
Klasyfikacja JEL: E41, E51, E58, O57
streszcz., summ.
Abstrakt
W artykule analizujemy w szerszym międzynarodowym kontekście różne rodzaje kryzysów i na tym tle rozważamy kwestię, w jakim stopniu te kryzysy mogą wpływać na popyt na gotówkę. Do empirycznej weryfikacji związku między kryzysem a popytem na gotówkę wykorzystujemy dane z 16 krajów w okresie od 1990 do 2022 r. Do celów analitycznych wyodrębniamy sześć rodzajów kryzysów i okresów o podwyższonej niepewności. Są to: (1) niepewność związana z funkcjonowaniem cyfrowej infrastruktury systemu płatniczego określana mianem "Problem roku 2000", (2) kryzys zaufania do systemu finansowego w związku z globalnym kryzysem rynków finansowych w latach 2008-2009, (3) katastrofy naturalne, takie jak trzęsienia ziemi i pandemie, (4) kryzysy polityczne, (5) okresy wysokiej inflacji, (6) kryzysy walutowe, takie jak kryzys azjatycki z lat 1997-1999. W badaniu staramy się pokazać, jak w zależności od rodzaju i specyfiki kryzysu kształtuje się popyt na gotówkę zarówno krajową, jak i zagraniczną w badanym okresie i w wyszczególnionych krajach. Generalnie za uzasadnioną przyjmuje się tezę, że w okresach kryzysów, i to niezależnie od rodzaju kryzysu, popyt na gotówkę rośnie. Pogłębione badania dowodzą jednak, że rodzaj kryzysu ma wpływ na strukturę popytu. Niektóre rodzaje kryzysów w większym stopniu wpływają na popyt na banknoty o niskich nominałach, przeznaczane na cele transakcyjne, niż na banknoty o wysokich nominałach, które najczęściej służą do tezauryzacji. I odwrotnie, obserwuje się kryzysy, w których popyt na banknoty o wysokich nominałach w celach tezauryzacji rośnie szybciej niż popyt transakcyjny na walory o niskich nominałach. Z uwagi na specyficzne cechy gotówki, a przede wszystkim jej fizyczną formę, może ona obsługiwać transakcje również w sytuacjach przerw w dostawach energii elektrycznej i awarii czytników kart płatniczych. Fakt ten jest szczególnie istotny z punktu widzenia wzmocnienia odporności systemu płatniczego w sytuacjach zagrożenia kryzysem. Już choćby z tego powodu cyfrowy pieniądz banku centralnego nie może w pełni zastąpić gotówki, co najwyżej w "normalnych" czasach może ją jedynie uzupełniać. Nie powinien zatem dziwić fakt, że akurat w krajach, w których znacznie zredukowano obrót gotówkowy, coraz częściej podnoszone są argumenty, aby jednak infrastrukturę obrotu gotówkowego utrzymywać na zadowalającym poziomie. (abstrakt oryginalny)

We analyse the repercussions of different kinds of crises on cash demand in an international perspective. Our case studies are based on time series of banknotes in circulation in a selection of 16 countries and currency areas across all continents over the period from 1990 to 2022. We distinguish between six different kinds of crises: (1) uncertainty of the digital infrastructure, (2) confidence crises of the financial system, (3) natural disasters, (4) political crises, (5) inflationary crises, and (6) exchange rate crises. Our case studies suggest that crises are likely to have contributed to the dynamic growth in demand for banknotes in the countries analysed. This applies both to small and large banknote denominations. (original abstract)
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Biblioteka Główna Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego w Katowicach
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Bibliografia
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Cytowane przez
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ISSN
0137-5520
Język
eng
URI / DOI
http://dx.doi.org/10.5604/01.3001.0054.9611
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