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Autor
Glapiński Adam (Szkoła Główna Handlowa w Warszawie)
Tytuł
Ryzyka związane z przedwczesnym przyjęciem euro przez Polskę w świetle teorii optymalnych obszarów walutowych
Risks Related to Premature Adoption of the Euro by Poland in the Light of the Optimal Currency Area Theory
Źródło
Bank i Kredyt, 2025, nr 3, s. 253-268, bibliogr. s. 265-267
Bank & Credit
Słowa kluczowe
Optymalny obszar walutowy, Strefa euro, Unia walutowa, Płynny kurs walutowy
Optimum Currency Areas (OCA), Eurozone, Currency union, Floating exchange rates
Uwagi
Klasyfikacja JEL: E42, E58, F45
streszcz., summ.
Abstrakt
Odwołując się do teorii optymalnych obszarów walutowych, w artykule przeanalizowano cechy strefy euro, które sprawiają, że nie pojawiają się oczekiwane korzyści z utworzenia unii walutowej. Jednocześnie część państw strefy euro poniosła znaczne koszty makroekonomiczne po przyjęciu wspólnej waluty. Polska gospodarka obecnie znacznie różni się od gospodarki strefy euro, zwłaszcza w związku z szybszym wzrostem produktywności oraz wyższą naturalną stopą procentową. Przyjęcie wspólnej waluty oznaczałoby dla naszego kraju utratę możliwości prowadzenia autonomicznej polityki pieniężnej, co istotnie zwiększałoby ryzyko destabilizacji makroekonomicznej. Przywrócenie równowagi gospodarczej wiązałoby się z istotnymi kosztami społecznymi, w tym ze wzrostem bezrobocia oraz emigracją, co zahamowałoby proces konwergencji. Dodatkowo, rezygnacja z płynnego kursu walutowego pozbawiłaby gospodarkę ważnego mechanizmu dostosowawczego, zwiększając zmienność wzrostu gospodarczego i bezrobocia. (abstrakt oryginalny)

This article evaluates the Eurozone's performance through the lens of the theory of optimal currency areas (OCA), highlighting structural weaknesses that have prevented the monetary union from delivering its expected benefits. Key OCA criteria - such as high labour mobility, flexible labour and product markets, and synchronized business cycles - are only partially met within the euro area. The limited mobility of production factors, especially labour, combined with rigid markets, has impeded the ability of member economies to adjust to asymmetric shocks. Furthermore, substantial differences in natural interest rates across Eurozone countries, along with incomplete cyclical alignment, have contributed to persistent mismatches between the European Central Bank's monetary policy and the economic needs of individual member states. These mismatches have amplified macroeconomic imbalances and, in some cases, triggered boom-bust cycles and a long-term deceleration in economic growth. The second part of the article focuses on the implications of potential euro adoption by Poland. The Polish economy currently differs significantly from those of the euro area due to - most of all - its faster productivity growth, higher natural interest rate, and ongoing convergence with more advanced EU economies. Therefore, joining the Eurozone would deprive Poland and its central bank of its ability to set interest rates appropriate to domestic conditions, raising the risk of macroeconomic instability and potentially disrupting the convergence process. In particular, losing monetary autonomy could destabilise the economy. Macroeconomic imbalance would be difficult to correct without significant social costs, such as increased unemployment and emigration. Additionally, the abandonment of a floating exchange rate would eliminate an important adjustment mechanism, thereby increasing the volatility of output and employment. Importantly, the current floating exchange rate regime of the Polish złoty has not hindered export growth, which remains driven by the high competitiveness of the economy, integration with EU markets, and participation in regional supply chains. While euro adoption may become more beneficial as Poland converges further with Western European economies in terms of income levels, the present assessment unequivocally indicates that the macroeconomic risks of joining the Eurozone outweigh any benefits. (original abstract)
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Biblioteka Główna Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego w Katowicach
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Bibliografia
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Cytowane przez
Pokaż
ISSN
0137-5520
Język
pol
URI / DOI
http://dx.doi.org/10.5604/01.3001.0055.1336
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